Herbert Burns

Commits clearly to Jenkins, expecting a comfortable win, and defends the lopsided -850 line as warranted, while acknowledging but not treating as decisive the risk that Burns is live for a quick submission if the fight hits the mat early.

Grappling-heavy fighter with a big submission toolbox the analyst says could finish 'just about anybody' in a short grappling match, attacking takedowns and submissions immediately. He's a fast starter whose cardio fades quickly after the first round -- a trend he says has hurt him in recent performances -- and his striking is mostly power shots and knees used to set up the takedown rather than a standalone game.

He names Arce to get it done and outlast Burns, but he says he is passing on the moneyline given the price and would rather play a Burns first-round-submission prop for value -- wager caution (capped further by the root-beer idiom right after) rather than doubt about who wins.

Burns is a grappler first -- very solid, large toolbox, aggressive submission attacker with good takedown volume -- but his cardio is flagged as falling off a cliff as fights go on, which cost him badly in his last outing. His striking is decent with good power and early volume. He is dangerous in round one against anybody.