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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Herbert Burns vs. Evan Dunham

UFC 2-4-0 vs. 11-9-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-4-0
UFC record
11-9-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
38
AgeΔ 6 yrs
44
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Orthodox1-1 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw8-6 vs orthodox fighters
26.6
Layoff (months)Δ 50.3 mo
76.9
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLDW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Herbert Burns is a submission threat — 1.57 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Herbert Burns hunts takedowns — 3.13 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Evan Dunham is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Herbert Burns

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 86
Tier 3 — regional circuit 30

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.15 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Evan Dunham

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 119
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.92 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

711.85/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
12285.33/min · norm 3.43
1945.07/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8163.54/min · norm 3.37
36.0%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
39.3%norm 43.7%
41.4%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
61.7%norm 56.3%
10.39/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.13/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Herbert Burns

Distance 83.2% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 7.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 6.4%)

Evan Dunham

Distance 89.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Herbert Burns

Head 73.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 19.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.6% (norm 7.9%)

Evan Dunham

Head 91.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.9% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Burns L/AAccFeatherweight med Dunham L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 48 / 164 29.3% 40.7% 1024 / 2811 36.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 12 / 15 too few to rate 70.5% 142 / 218 65.1% 67.5%
On the ground 11 / 18 too few to rate 69.1% 62 / 99 62.6% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 38 / 145 26.2% 37.2% 1039 / 2849 36.5% 35.3%
To the body 24 / 39 61.5% 68.4% 137 / 221 62.0% 69.2%
To the legs 9 / 13 too few to rate 80.7% 52 / 58 89.7% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Burns L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Dunham L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 94 / 196 48.0% 39.3% 639 / 1840 34.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 14 / 18 too few to rate 70.3% 122 / 202 60.4% 68.6%
On the ground 86 / 117 73.5% 69.5% 55 / 87 63.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 139 / 266 52.3% 35.9% 557 / 1767 31.5% 35.2%
To the body 36 / 43 83.7% 68.1% 160 / 232 69.0% 68.2%
To the legs 19 / 22 too few to rate 81.1% 99 / 130 76.2% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
834.8% acc · 3.13/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
2833.3% acc · 1.82/15 · norm 1.34
250.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
5979.7% def · norm 63.2%
8:3322.3% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
52:2122.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
15:095:56 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
27:521:48 per 15 · norm 2:50
41.57/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
150.98/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dunham has more cage time on record.