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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Lightweight · “The Train”

Nate Landwehr

18-8-0 UFC 5-7-0
Bottomless Cardio Forward Pressure Volume Machine Relentless Attack KO-Prone Gets Dropped
5'9"Height
72"Reach
OrthodoxStance
38Age
1KO wins
2Sub wins
60.0%Finish rate
9:03Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 66 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking good · Oct 2026 · stats read 60 → nudged +1 inside the band · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking power +1, striking volume +2, striking technique +1, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 50 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Weak, rated 3 of 100 · claims striking defense -1 (-3) Durability — Weak, rated 4 of 100 · 138 MMA read him durable · Jun 2023, before his knockout loss on 2026-10-17 — stats lead, that read only steps · claims chin -1 (-2) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 30 of 100 · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Apr 2026 · stats read 58 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims td defense +2 (+4) Grappling — Average, rated 65 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Oct 2026 · stats read 57 → nudged -0 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +2, ground and pound +1 (+5) Control — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · claims ground and pound +1 (+2) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good whiteboard
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Buckley vs Malott Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 11, 2026 · whiteboard watch ↗
  • good UFC 327 Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 5, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Vera vs Sandhagen Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Fight Night San Antonio · March 21, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good
6 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Buckley vs Malott Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 11, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 327 Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 5, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC 289 Full Card Breakdown Analysis And Prediction · June 6, 2023 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Vera vs Sandhagen Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Fight Night San Antonio · March 21, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio elite
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • elite UFC 289 Full Card Breakdown Analysis And Prediction · June 6, 2023 watch ↗
durability not yet read
striking good 5 reads · whiteboard
grappling good 6 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio elite 1 read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Durability, Wrestling, Control.

Bottomless Cardio 138 MMA · Jun 2023 grades his cardio elite
Forward Pressure 5.4 landed and 6.2 absorbed per minute — he turns fights into firefights
Volume Machine 5.4 significant strikes landed per minute · 138 MMA · Oct 2026 tags pace: high volume
Relentless Attack 82 offensive actions per 15 min — strikes, takedown and submission attempts together
KO-Prone 6 of 7 losses came by knockout
Gets Dropped knocked down 8 times in 108 minutes of cage time
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min5.38
Sig. strikes absorbed / min6.18
Striking accuracy45.1%
Striking defense50.5%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.14
Takedowns / 15 min0.69
Takedown accuracy41.7%
Takedown defense69.7%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.69
Control time10.9%
Record vs .500+ opponents3-3

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Mandel Nallo clear UFC Fight Night Buckley vs Malott Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 11, 2026
grapplinggood strikinggood cardioelite

thinks he can finish him first

A heavy-volume striker with good forward pressure, great volume, combinations, and decent power. The analyst frames him as past his physical peak: he used to absorb punishment and grind opponents down on sheer cardio, but that engine is no longer there and his recovery has slowed. Still a good, varied grappler with solid ground and pound and front chokes tied directly to his takedowns.

Strengthheavy forward pressure, great volume, good combinations, decent power
Strengthstill a good grappler, good ground and pound
Strengthgood front chokes set up directly off his takedowns
Weaknessno longer has the cardio/engine he once had; fades and does not recover between exchanges the way he used to
pace · high volume
vs Cub Swanson coinflip UFC 327 Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 5, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplinggood cardioelite

calls it a complete pass, very hedged

A good striker who leans on forward pressure and high volume, with decent power that can stumble but not finish opponents outright. A good grappler with good takedown defense and good front chokes, often set up directly off his ground-and-pound, either by provoking a back-take opportunity or catching a turtled opponent. His pace and cardio are described as what wins him fights.

Strengthgood forward pressure and volume
Strengthdecent power, can stumble opponents
Strengthgood takedown defense
Strengthgood front chokes set up off ground-and-pound
Strengthpace and cardio are his biggest edge
Weaknessnot a one-shot finisher
ko power · decenttd defense · goodpace · high volumesub threat · good
vs Doo Ho Choi coinflip UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood cardioelite

Calls it a genuine tossup and warns viewers against overcommitting to either side.

Good striker with heavy forward pressure, high combination volume, and decent (not one-shot) power that compounds with volume; good grappling with solid ground-and-pound and good front chokes often set up off takedown defense. Pace and cardio are described as what win him most of his fights, since he is willing to eat shots to get where he needs to be.

Strengthhigh-volume combination striking
Strengthpace/cardio
Strengthground-and-pound and front chokes
Weaknesswilling to eat shots to apply pressure
pace · high volumeko power · decent
vs Jamall Emmers lean UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 · 3 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood cardioelite

He takes Landwehr on pace and volume but calls it himself a 'razor thin' fight and frames the pick as leaning toward the underdog rather than a confident read, which is an explicit hedge on the win itself.

Landwehr compensates for a lack of polish and one-shot power by swarming with volume and constant forward pressure, even though he eats a fair number of strikes doing it. His grappling is good -- strong ground and pound feeding into front chokes, plus decent takedown defense. His biggest asset in this matchup is pace, with the cardio to sustain it across a long fight.

Strengthhigh-volume, pressure striking
Strengthgood ground and pound
Strengthsets up front chokes
Strengthsuperior pace/cardio in this matchup
Weaknesslacks polish and one-shot power
Weaknessgets hit with some regularity
vs Dan Ige coinflip UFC 289 Full Card Breakdown Analysis And Prediction · June 6, 2023 · 4 reads since
grapplinggood cardioelite strikingdecent

He states outright, twice, that Ige is the fighter who should win this fight on the merits, then overrides to Landwehr by his own admission on emotion rather than analysis -- and will not place a bet on it. Per the brief's own instruction, confidence is set on the analytical support for the pick, not on how emphatically he states it; the surviving analytical case for the actual pick (Landwehr) is effectively negative, which is a coinflip-grade basis however strongly he states the preference.

Nate Landwehr is read as a relentless, high-volume forward striker -- unpolished but overwhelming in output, with decent power, good takedown defense, and a real grappling finishing tool (front chokes off a stuffed or desperate takedown, converting into ground-and-pound-to-choke). The analyst calls his cardio great in the board sense but uses the word 'fantastic' when he says it himself, and separately argues that his two past knockout losses (both via flying knee) do not meaningfully count against his durability.

Strengthrelentless, high-volume forward pressure
Strengthdecent power
Strengthgood takedown defense
Strengthgood grappling -- front chokes, ground-and-pound into submissions
Strengthvery good/elite-level cardio
pace · high volumeko power · decenttd defense · goodchin · durable
vs Austin Lingo clear UFC Fight Night Vera vs Sandhagen Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Fight Night San Antonio · March 21, 2023 · 5 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

He settles on Landwehr and repeats the call at the close, built on a stated mechanism (volume and cardio against a durable opponent); he credits Lingo as the more technically polished striker but never hedges his own winner, holding this at clear.

A relentless, forward-pressure fighter with what the analyst calls great cardio and decent, if unpolished, striking volume that he says hits hard enough to make up for the sloppiness. His path to victory, as stated, is simply out-working a durable opponent over the fight's length.

Strengthrelentless forward pressure
Strengthcardio
Strengthenough volume and power to offset technique gaps
Weaknessstriking isn't technically pretty/polished

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
August 13, 2022 vs David Onama — 6.07/min (W) Aug '22 March 25, 2023 vs Austin Lingo — 6.97/min (W) Mar '23 June 10, 2023 vs Dan Ige — 4.93/min (L) Jun '23 March 30, 2024 vs Jamall Emmers — 7.84/min (W) — only 4.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Mar '24 December 7, 2024 vs Dooho Choi — 1.87/min (L) Dec '24 July 12, 2025 vs Morgan Charriere — 6.03/min (L) Jul '25 April 11, 2026 vs Cub Swanson — 3.66/min (L) — only 4.1 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Apr '26 October 17, 2026 vs Mandel Nallo — 2.25/min (L) Oct '26

Fight history

12 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Mandel Nallo 0-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 0:47 — UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · October 17, 2026
13/47Sig. strikes
58/100Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Cub Swanson 30-14 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:06 — UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · April 11, 2026
15/30Sig. strikes
37/49Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Morgan Charriere 2-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 0:27 — UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · July 12, 2025
63/155Sig. strikes
67/131Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:22Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Dooho Choi 15-4-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 3:21 — UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · December 7, 2024
25/67Sig. strikes
78/116Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:42Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Jamall Emmers 20-7 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:43 — UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · March 30, 2024
37/76Sig. strikes
39/78Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Dan Ige 16-6 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · June 10, 2023
74/195Sig. strikes
88/184Absorbed
0/4Takedowns
0:26Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Austin Lingo 9-1 walk-in Submission · R2 4:11 — UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · March 25, 2023
64/153Sig. strikes
48/146Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
0:24Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W David Onama 10-1 walk-in Decision - Majority · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · August 13, 2022
91/185Sig. strikes
71/174Absorbed
3/4Takedowns
5:05Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Ludovit Klein 17-3 walk-in Submission · R3 2:22 — UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · October 16, 2021
71/130Sig. strikes
42/85Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
3:46Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
L Julian Erosa 24-8 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 0:56 — UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · February 20, 2021
9/14Sig. strikes
15/23Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Darren Elkins 24-8 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
118/234Sig. strikes
121/253Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:29Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Herbert Burns 9-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:43 — UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · January 25, 2020
4/9Sig. strikes
7/17Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:33Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
18-8-0Pro record
[https://ssfgear.com/ SSF Submission Academy] (2012–present), Wildside FitnessGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 9
Submission 2
Decision 7
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 5
Submission 1
Decision 2
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 11
M-1 Challenge 5
XFC 4
A&A Fight Time Promotions 2
Gladiators of the Cage 2
State Line Promotions 1
3FC 1
Full career — 26 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Cub Swanson TKO (punches) UFC 327
April 11, 2026
UFC 1 4:06
L Morgan Charrière KO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
July 12, 2025
UFC 3 0:27
L Choi Doo-ho TKO (elbows) UFC 310
December 7, 2024
UFC 3 3:21
W Jamall Emmers KO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
March 30, 2024
UFC 1 4:43
L Dan Ige Decision (unanimous) UFC 289
June 10, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Austin Lingo Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen
March 25, 2023
UFC 2 4:11
W David Onama Decision (majority) UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz
August 13, 2022
UFC 3 5:00
W Ľudovít Klein Submission (anaconda choke) UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
October 16, 2021
UFC 3 2:22
L Julian Erosa TKO (flying knee) UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
February 20, 2021
UFC 1 0:56
W Darren Elkins Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris
May 16, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
L Herbert Burns KO (knee) UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos
January 25, 2020
UFC 1 2:43
W Viktor Kolesnik Decision (unanimous) M-1 Challenge 102
June 28, 2019
M-1 Challenge 5 5:00
W Andrey Lezhnev TKO (punches) M-1 Challenge 100
December 15, 2018
M-1 Challenge 3 3:10
W Khamzat Dalgiev TKO (punches) M-1 Challenge 95
July 21, 2018
M-1 Challenge 2 4:35
W Viktor Kolesnik Decision (split) M-1 Challenge 85
November 10, 2017
M-1 Challenge 3 5:00
W Mikhail Korobkov KO (punch) M-1 Challenge 83
September 23, 2017
M-1 Challenge 2 1:31
W Solon Staley Decision (unanimous) A&A Fight Time Promotions: November to Remember
November 5, 2016
A&A Fight Time Promotions 3 5:00
W Diego Saraiva TKO (punches) A&A Fight Time Promotions: A Night of Explosions
March 12, 2016
A&A Fight Time Promotions 1 4:47
L Mark Cherico Submission (rear-naked choke) Gladiators of the Cage 19
April 11, 2015
Gladiators of the Cage 2 1:34
W Anthony Jones TKO (punches) State Line Promotions: BMF Invitational 6
February 15, 2015
State Line Promotions 2 3:03
W Justin Steave Decision (unanimous) Gladiators of the Cage 15
January 24, 2015
Gladiators of the Cage 3 5:00
W Adam Townsend Decision (split) 3FC 20
February 1, 2014
3FC 5 5:00
W Keith Richardson KO (punch) XFC 26
October 18, 2013
XFC 1 4:43
L D'Juan Owens Decision (unanimous) XFC 22
February 22, 2013
XFC 3 5:00
W Chris Wright TKO (punches) XFC 20
September 28, 2012
XFC 2 3:56
W Billy Mullins KO (punches) XFC 18
June 22, 2012
XFC 2 1:21

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Nate Landwehr) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 5.4 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 6.2 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 45.1% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 50.5% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 0.7 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 41.7% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 69.7% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.7 avg 0.6
Control time 10.9% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 60.0% avg 50.7%