Grant Dawson

"Give me Grant Dawson" after explicitly weighing the knockout risk from Aliev's power and still landing on Dawson's grappling/back-control edge.

Decent striker whose best weapon is his leg kick; he is super uncomfortable standing and his durability is a known weakness -- he tends to get hit and finished early, though if he survives the opening he settles down. His real strength is grappling: described in his own words as a very good, chain-wrestling grinder with elite-level back control, among the best in the UFC at taking the back, which the analyst expects to carry him past Aliev even if Aliev gets a takedown first.

picks Dawson on training-room intel, concedes a big shot could flatten him

His striking is still coming along and clearly not where he wants to trade; the analyst reads real discomfort in exchanges and a chin that gives out once he is tagged clean. The true identity here is a top-control wrestler: strong chain takedowns, scrambling, ground strikes, and back-riding described as among the sport's very best. Part of the pick rests on the analyst's belief that Dawson only signed on for this bout because he already had the edge in their shared training sessions.

States the pick plainly ('give me Grant Dawson') with a named mechanism of control and a late fade. Only the finish is hedged, never the winner.

As of 2025-12-02, not a good striker by his own grading, though a decent leg kick and the threat of his grappling open up his hands. His real game is wrestling, graded a level above the ladder's top rungs: he chains takedowns, pushes good volume, scrambles well and lands good ground-and-pound, but his signature trait is back control -- once he gets there, the analyst says, there is nothing the opponent can do about it.

Sticks firmly with Dawson, predicting a clean finish rather than a close decision -- a call on method and round, not a hedge on the winner -- and explicitly pushes back on the public habit of fading him.

An elite-level grappler who strings together takedown attempts relentlessly, can get a fight down whenever he chooses, scrambles at a very high level, and has recently added a punishing follow-up on the ground as a newer part of his arsenal; once he secures a back, the analyst says, there's no escaping it -- among the best control in the division. His own hands are explicitly rated an unspectacular 'decent,' floated lower before settling there in the same breath, leaning on a serviceable leg kick and the threat of the takedown to open things up.

He says he is taking Dawson 'pretty confidently', expecting him to get the back and control to a finish or decision; the only hedge in the chapter is about a single prior knockout loss, which he argues away as a cold-start one-punch fluke rather than a chin issue.

Called a relentlessly tough, elite-level grappler: excellent chain-wrestling and scrambling, heavy takedown volume, and back control the analyst rates among the best in the UFC. Striking is secondary but functional -- a good leg kick, with the wrestling threat opening up his hands. A prior knockout loss (to Bobby Green) is raised and argued away as a cold, perfect punch rather than a durability pattern, noting only two losses across his whole career.

Favors Dawson's positional grappling and a slight striking edge; the acknowledged knockout risk is framed as a possibility, not doubt about the pick itself.

Wrestling-centric lightweight the analyst calls the better positional grappler, with chain wrestling, good takedown volume, good scrambles and excellent back control. Picked as slightly the better striker too, with a real durability concern raised from a recent knockout loss.

Gives a detailed round-by-round breakdown (Green competitive in the opening and closing rounds, Dawson controlling the middle three via grappling toward a probable submission) and closes by stating plainly that Dawson is the pick. The only thing left open is which rounds go to each man, not who wins.

A very solid, high-volume wrestler who chains takedowns relentlessly and, once on top, is described as suffocating -- excellent control, a serious back-take and rear-naked-choke threat. His striking is only decent and still his weaker asset, though it has shown real improvement since a camp move, including a leg kick he specifically likes here to slow his opponent's lead leg and set up the wrestling. Durable. Had a severe cardio collapse in a prior fight (dominated early, nearly couldn't stand by the third round) but is said to have cleaned that up since. Picked to control the middle rounds and finish by submission.

He says Dawson wins this with no problem and that it will be more one-sided than people think, repeating the pick several times with a specific method (submission) and round, without voicing a single doubt about the win anywhere in the chapter; the extensive wager detail is purely about bet sizing and props, which does not demote the grade.

A relentless, high-volume wrestler who chain-wrestles his way to top position, lands heavy ground-and-pound, takes the back when he can, and scrambles well, with excellent overall grappling control. His striking is only decent but is said to have improved since a camp move to Florida, including adding a new leg kick. He is very durable (one knockout loss in his whole career) and finishes most of his fights rather than winning by decision.

says he rates Dawson highly here and expects him to get the win, argued with a real mechanism (style matchup, age) despite an acknowledged cardio worry he treats as addressed

A relentless folk-style wrestler the analyst calls a hammer for his takedown-heavy, bully-the-opponent game plan, with only one loss in his career from well before his UFC run. The analyst argues folk style is simply the better wrestling tool for MMA. The one real knock is cardio: his lone UFC draw came after fading badly in a third round, though the analyst says his most recent fight (after a camp change) showed clearly improved cardio. At 28 to Madsen's 38, he also cites a statistical age edge.