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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres

UFC 13-2-1 vs. 5-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-2-1
UFC record
5-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
32
AgeΔ 1 yrs
31
5'10"
HeightΔ 0"
5'10"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
73"
Switch0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch1-1 vs switch-stance fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 3.9 mo
4.3
WWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Manuel Torres carries real power — 2.93 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Grant Dawson owns the mat — in control 63% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Grant Dawson hunts takedowns — 3.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Grant Dawson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 132
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.65 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500

Manuel Torres

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 62
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.26 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6233.37/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
1246.05/min · norm 3.43
4392.38/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
914.44/min · norm 3.37
51.1%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
55.6%norm 43.7%
44.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
47.7%norm 56.3%
10.08/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
42.93/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Grant Dawson

Distance 67.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 26.8% (norm 8.0%)

Manuel Torres

Distance 81.6% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 10.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Grant Dawson

Head 78.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.1% (norm 8.0%)

Manuel Torres

Head 79.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 16.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.5% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dawson L/AAccLightweight med Torres L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 337 / 817 41.2% 38.4% 89 / 182 48.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 59 / 76 77.6% 67.5% 16 / 18 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 227 / 327 69.4% 69.1% 19 / 23 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 433 / 954 45.4% 35.3% 83 / 177 46.9% 35.3%
To the body 116 / 179 64.8% 69.2% 33 / 36 91.7% 69.2%
To the legs 74 / 87 85.1% 81.8% 8 / 10 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dawson L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Torres L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 333 / 650 51.2% 38.9% 60 / 127 47.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 48 / 55 87.3% 68.6% 9 / 11 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 58 / 79 73.4% 68.2% 22 / 36 61.1% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 297 / 597 49.7% 35.2% 58 / 121 47.9% 35.2%
To the body 97 / 134 72.4% 68.2% 10 / 18 too few to rate 68.2%
To the legs 45 / 53 84.9% 81.5% 23 / 35 65.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4641.1% acc · 3.74/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
266.7% acc · 1.46/15 · norm 1.34
866.7% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
975.0% def · norm 63.2%
116:4463.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
1:398.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
13:311:05 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
2:141:38 per 15 · norm 2:50
151.22/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
10.73/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dawson has more cage time on record.