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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Grant Dawson vs. Darrick Minner

UFC 13-2-1 vs. 2-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-2-1
UFC record
2-4-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
32
AgeΔ 4 yrs
36
5'10"
HeightΔ 3"
5'7"
72"
ReachΔ 3"
69"
Switch11-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-1 vs switch-stance fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 47.6 mo
48
WWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Grant Dawson has owned orthodox fighters — 11-1 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and Darrick Minner is orthodox.
Darrick Minner is a submission threat — 2.85 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Grant Dawson owns the mat — in control 63% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Grant Dawson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 132
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.65 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500

Darrick Minner

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 25
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 45
Tier 3 — regional circuit 225

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.47 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 25 finish wins over 43 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6233.37/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
1142.40/min · norm 3.52
4392.38/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1092.30/min · norm 3.54
51.1%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
67.5%norm 44.8%
44.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
34.3%norm 54.8%
10.08/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
10.32/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Grant Dawson

Distance 67.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 26.8% (norm 8.0%)

Darrick Minner

Distance 52.7% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 18.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 29.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Grant Dawson

Head 78.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.1% (norm 8.0%)

Darrick Minner

Head 68.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 19.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.4% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dawson L/AAccLightweight med Minner L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 337 / 817 41.2% 38.4% 52 / 89 58.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 59 / 76 77.6% 67.5% 26 / 31 83.9% 70.5%
On the ground 227 / 327 69.4% 69.1% 36 / 49 73.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 433 / 954 45.4% 35.3% 67 / 115 58.3% 37.2%
To the body 116 / 179 64.8% 69.2% 31 / 33 93.9% 68.4%
To the legs 74 / 87 85.1% 81.8% 16 / 21 too few to rate 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dawson L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Minner L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 333 / 650 51.2% 38.9% 22 / 48 45.8% 39.3%
In the clinch 48 / 55 87.3% 68.6% 3 / 5 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 58 / 79 73.4% 68.2% 84 / 113 74.3% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 297 / 597 49.7% 35.2% 82 / 136 60.3% 35.9%
To the body 97 / 134 72.4% 68.2% 25 / 26 96.2% 68.1%
To the legs 45 / 53 84.9% 81.5% 2 / 4 too few to rate 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4641.1% acc · 3.74/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
888.9% acc · 2.53/15 · norm 1.17
866.7% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
666.7% def · norm 61.5%
116:4463.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
22:4548.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
13:311:05 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
14:484:40 per 15 · norm 3:11
151.22/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
92.85/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dawson has more cage time on record.