Viacheslav Borshchev

Picks Borshchev for his UFC experience and striking edge, but calls it 'not the most confident' pick on the card -- citing that it's 'just added,' a hedged durability worry, and a stylistic matchup he admits he has no footage to judge.

A solid striker and, in the analyst's clear view, the better striker here: a really solid kicking arsenal built around a favorite snapping front kick to the body, plenty of power, good body work with both hands and feet, and combinations mixing punches and kicks. A long kickboxing career plus a growing MMA ledger has the analyst actively worried his durability could be fading, since he's visibly absorbed a lot of damage; the analyst frames a knockout loss as the main way he loses here. His takedown defense is a real, named problem -- he tends to scoot to the cage and climb back up, a method that works against opponents without a way to punish the scoot or without strong top control, but the analyst explicitly has no footage to judge how he handles a true relentless, cage-focused wrestler, which is exactly this opponent's style. Taking the fight on short notice is also named as a factor denting the analyst's confidence.

He admits outright that he could be badly wrong here, says he doesn't trust this matchup at all, notes he has almost no money on this card, and uses root-beer language for it -- a stated lack of confidence in the specific pick, not just betting caution.

Borshchev is read as the technically better, 'solid' striker of the two -- good kicks, real (if not one-shot) power, and the ability to work the body and string punches and kicks together -- with a known hole in his takedown defense that he partly offsets by scooting to the cage and working back to his feet.

He picks Nolan on form, travel and a grappling edge, then undercuts himself with 'maybe I'm crazy' -- a first-person doubt about his own read, not a round-level hedge.

Borshchev is called the cleaner, more skilled striker of the two -- a solid, well-rounded striker with devastating kicks, good power, body work and combinations -- but his takedown defense is a big hole, and the analyst notes he was previously dropped on the feet by Chase Hooper despite that fight being a mismatch on paper. The analyst attributes his recent so-so form to stepping up in competition level rather than a decline in his own ability.

Explicit, repeated commitment ('I'll take' Borshchev, then 'we're gonna take' him) built on a stated mechanism -- pure striking matchup -- despite floating that the market number favors the other side; per the standing rule, a pick going against the better price is a confidence signal, not a hedge.

Coming off an abysmal 1-3-1 in his last five, he still calls him a high-level, fantastic striker with heavy kicks, power and clean combinations -- language well above the board's own unlabeled 'High Level Str' heading. The real concern is defensive: his takedown defense is bad, and his durability is described as starting to fade, with him getting rocked and wobbled more often lately, including against Chase Hooper. The pick rests entirely on this staying a pure striking matchup.

He states the pick plainly, twice, but immediately grants the opponent a real finishing route: Hooper could get 'absolutely dominated' in a standing round, and he separately says Borshchev 'could' knock Hooper out on the feet -- a conceded path to losing outright, which is a hedge on the win itself, not just on method or round.

Rated the plainly better striker in this matchup, operating at a top tier with standout kicks, real pop on his shots, strong body work and fluid combination punching. His takedown defense is not his best asset -- he scrambles toward the cage to try to climb back up -- and an unusually short wingspan for his height is flagged as an odd trait for a man who fights at range.

He says he's 'gonna pass on this one' for any real betting weight and reaches for the root-beer idiom, treating the Sadykhov nod as a pick in name only.

A high-level striker with crisp kickboxing, serious power, and a dangerous kick game the analyst calls his best weapon, plus a body hook and combinations that blend punches and kicks. His only real hole is a takedown defense the analyst calls lacking, though he does work to scramble back up; the stated route to beating him is simply taking him down repeatedly and holding him there. As of 2023-11-07.

root-beer idiom used plus an explicit low-confidence disclaimer about this particular card pick

High-level kickboxing, mixing kicks and punches fluidly in combination, working the body with real power behind it. His clear flaw is takedown defense -- he does the right initial things (fighting hands, wide base) but cannot actually stop a committed shot, and gets taken down repeatedly across a fight even though he keeps working back to his feet. Picked as the better pure striker, though not by a wide margin.

He states the pick using the word 'lean' itself -- one of the four confidence-tier words, used almost verbatim. This is also the measured root-beer-idiom-plus-skip-advice combination: the root-beer idiom is used twice, and he separately, explicitly advises against playing the fight at all. Per the standing rule, idiom-plus-skip-advice means coinflip.

Praised in superlative language as an elite pedigree striker, training out of a well-regarded camp, and has shown he can get back up when taken down. He accepted this bout with little lead time, which the analyst argues actually works in his favor against an opponent who hasn't been able to game-plan specifically for him.