Tony Ferguson

The reasoning given is fairly firm -- a long losing run is treated as dispositive -- but is immediately softened to a narrow margin, and real credit is handed to the losing side as the better pure boxer in this specific pairing.

The chapter opens by stating he is in a steep fall-off and that his usual notes were deliberately scaled back as a result. Even so, he is still rated the sharper boxer of the two here -- high output and his trademark cutting elbows -- plus a credible mat game with sweeps, top-and-bottom elbows and a varied submission arsenal. The stated reason for passing on him is simply the long losing streak and being a step behind now.

hedges heavily, will pass

Our paraphrase: On paper the analyst calls Ferguson the better fighter in almost every area -- a solid, high-volume striker with very damaging elbows, and a grappling game he calls fantastic (excellent sprawl, very good Darce chokes, excellent sweeps, ground-and-pound from either position). But he is explicitly on a clear decline, not the same fighter, carrying a five-fight losing streak, and visibly off in his most recent (Diaz) fight; he is also returning from a layoff.

States the pick for Green but says directly he would be "even more confident" without the live risk of a cut-stoppage from Ferguson's elbows -- a conceded, unrebutted route to the opponent winning.

Still shows a high pace and real killer instinct, with solid forward-pressure striking, good volume, and damaging elbows and leg kicks -- the elbows specifically threaten a cut-stoppage that even Green's shoulder-roll defense can't prevent. His wrestling and grappling remain good, with a sprawl, a varied submission game and ground-and-pound from either position. The analyst's central point, though, is an explicit decline he says dates to the accumulated damage from the Gaethje fight, which he states directly has never been the same since; the 0-5 recent record is acknowledged as partly a function of elite opposition but not explained away by it.

Calls Li Jingliang the "odds-on favorite" and names him his "official pick"; predicts a finish, with no staking caution stated.

Ferguson is credited with having faced about as tough a run of competition as exists in the division, and still carries real tools -- strong jiu-jitsu and nasty elbows capable of opening a fight-ending cut. He also holds a surprising reach edge for a naturally smaller lightweight frame now moving up to welterweight. Working against him: a very bad knockout loss only a few months prior, a four-fight losing streak, and the analyst's explicit unease about damage piling up this late in his career.