Rafael Dos Anjos

Explicit doubt about which version of Neal shows up precedes the pick -- a real qualifier on the win, since the analyst calls him hard to trust as a favorite -- though the win is then repeated plainly several times afterward with a specific size-advantage mechanism behind it.

An experienced, long-tenured fighter hitting a milestone birthday around fight week, whom the analyst considers a true lightweight with no remaining physical edge at welterweight, despite retaining every skill: a capable grappler whose takedown entries are good and whose top-position control is excellent, with a large ground toolbox and takedowns he sets up off his own strikes. His kicking -- legs and body are his best weapon -- plus combinations are both real, and his cardio is good enough for a full fight several times over. The issue described is purely physical at this specific weight, not a loss of skill.

Commits without a hedge, citing youth, superior physicality and work rate as enough to offset any technical gap, and closes by siding with Gamrot outright.

Experienced, well-rounded veteran: a capable grappler whose takedowns tend to land right after his punching combinations, backed by strong control and a deep toolbox once the fight is on the mat. His striking is equally credible, with kicks aimed at every level -- especially a heavy leg kick -- and the gas tank to go the full five rounds. The clear concern is age: described as nearing the end of his career at 39, he isn't expected to still be improving, and the pick goes against him on current-form physicality even though a prime version of him would reportedly beat today's opponent skill-for-skill.

Calls this his least confident pick of the card on account of dos Anjos's age, and separately says the age-and-size combination keeps him from wagering heavily on it -- both an outcome hedge and a wager caution, present together.

A well-rounded veteran: judged probably the superior grappler here, with good takedowns and a deep toolbox; an accomplished striker in his own right with a notably effective leg kick, and someone who disguises his takedown entries by shooting them off the tail end of his striking combinations; and, distinctively, a cardio engine the analyst rates as great, letting him sustain or raise his pace deep into a fight. He is undersized for welterweight (the analyst thinks he is far better suited to lightweight) and is 38, but is said to show no real signs of decline yet.

says he thinks the other man wins more often than not and trusts the grappling advantage to hold up

A veteran he says is better than his recent record suggests, since the losses came against tough competition. He leans on a real grappling advantage as the deciding factor, expecting it to control rounds against an opponent whose takedown defense he doubts, while noting both men can sustain a high pace deep into the fight.