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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Michael Chandler
Lightweight · “Iron”

Michael Chandler

23-11-0 UFC 2-6-0
Wrestler Precision Striker KO-Prone Gets Dropped
5'8"Height
71"Reach
OrthodoxStance
40Age
2KO wins
0Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
10:20Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 65 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Jun 2026 · stats read 63 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims striking power +3, kicking +1, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Above avg, rated 76 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking D — Weak, rated 3 of 100 · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Weak, rated 6 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Above avg, rated 77 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid · Apr 2025 · stats read 60 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims td offense +3 (+6) TD Defense — Average, rated 60 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 43 Grappling — Above avg, rated 72 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling solid · Jun 2026 · stats read 37 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims sub defense -1, ground and pound +2 (+1) Control — Average, rated 59 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +2 (+7) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 314 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 8, 2025 watch ↗
grappling solid whiteboard
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • solid UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 · whiteboard watch ↗
wrestling solid
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC 314 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 8, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC 281 Full Card Preview, Prediction, & Analysis · November 8, 2022 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 2 reads
grappling solid 1 read · whiteboard
wrestling solid 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Striking D, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Accuracy, Durability.

Built on 82 minutes of tracked cage time across 8 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Wrestler above avg wrestling — rates 77 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid · Apr 2025
Precision Striker above avg accuracy — rates 76 of 100 among UFC veterans
KO-Prone 3 of 6 losses came by knockout
Gets Dropped knocked down 5 times in 82 minutes of cage time
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.85
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.75
Striking accuracy50.5%
Striking defense40.9%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.36
Takedowns / 15 min1.63
Takedown accuracy36.0%
Takedown defense56.3%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.18
Control time18.8%
Record vs .500+ opponents2-6

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Mauricio Ruffy lean UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026
strikinggood wrestlingsolid

says Ruffy 'probably wins' because Chandler will chase a fun fight instead of the smart one

A good, powerful striker who closes distance explosively and can hurt people with his overhand off a takedown feint, but the analyst's real point is about approach: Chandler has repeatedly chosen the fun, crowd-pleasing fight over the smart path to victory ever since missing out on an early title shot. His wrestling and ground-and-pound are genuinely heavy, and the analyst thinks he could simply control a grappling-vulnerable opponent if he wanted to -- he just usually doesn't.

Strengthgood striker, real power, closes distance well
Strengthdynamic kicks, athletic
Strengthpowerful takedowns and big slams
Strengthheavy ground and pound, good scrambler
Strengthhas a real path to a dominant win if he chooses to control rather than entertain
Weaknessprioritizes an exciting fight over the winning path
Weaknessbest stretch of his career is behind him
Weaknesshas given up his back chasing a flashy finish before
Weaknessrarely hunts submissions anymore
vs Paddy Pimblett clear UFC 314 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 8, 2025 · 1 read since
strikinggood wrestlingsolid

Internal naming inside a mistagged block: he commits to Pimblett and states he finishes the job. Concrete mechanism given (Pimblett's grappling has grown substantially, a 5-round format gives him time to force the bout to the floor whenever he chooses, and he discounts Chandler's chances based on Chandler's own stated lack of focus on winning). No stay-away or hedge on the win itself.

A good striker with heavy forward pressure, quick distance-closing, a feinted-takedown-to-overhand power shot, and dynamic kicks. A solid wrestler with powerful takedowns/slams, heavy ground-and-pound, good scrambling, a tight submission squeeze and good back control. The analyst discounts his chances because he says Chandler has become focused on having fun, entertaining fights rather than winning them.

Strengthforward pressure/power shot
Strengthdynamic kicks
Strengthpowerful takedowns/slams/ground-and-pound
vs Dustin Poirier lean UFC 281 Full Card Preview, Prediction, & Analysis · November 8, 2022 · 2 reads since
wrestlinggood

Named plainly at seg 13 and again at seg 16, sitting in content-consistent 'both'-tagged segments. Capped from a higher grade by his own stated reluctance to stake real money on either side of this particular matchup -- a hedge on his willingness to back the win, not on the win itself.

A freak athlete with real knockout power and good wrestling, but the analyst's entire case against him is decision-making: a detailed account of the Oliveira fight where Chandler abandoned a winning strategy (ground and pound) to trade on the feet and got knocked out. He frames this as a repeatable pattern rather than a one-off.

Strengthfreak athleticism
Strengthreal knockout power, cited finishes over Hooker and a flash knockdown of Oliveira
Strengthgood wrestling background
Weaknesspoor striking defense
Weaknessquestionable in-fight decision-making/fight IQ, cited pattern of abandoning a winning gameplan to chase an exciting finish

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
January 23, 2021 vs Dan Hooker — 6.8/min (W) — only 2.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jan '21 May 15, 2021 vs Charles Oliveira — 5.64/min (L) May '21 November 6, 2021 vs Justin Gaethje — 6.87/min (L) Nov '21 May 7, 2022 vs Tony Ferguson — 5.11/min (W) May '22 November 12, 2022 vs Dustin Poirier — 3.58/min (L) Nov '22 November 16, 2024 vs Charles Oliveira — 3.36/min (L) Nov '24 April 12, 2025 vs Paddy Pimblett — 0.84/min (L) Apr '25 June 14, 2026 vs Mauricio Ruffy — 0.67/min (L) — only 4.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jun '26

Fight history

8 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Mauricio Ruffy 12-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:29 — UFC Freedom 250 · June 14, 2026
3/12Sig. strikes
19/40Absorbed
0/3Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Paddy Pimblett 22-3 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 3:07 — UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · April 12, 2025
11/28Sig. strikes
80/143Absorbed
4/7Takedowns
2:44Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Charles Oliveira 30-10 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00 — UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · November 16, 2024
84/113Sig. strikes
88/122Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
1:59Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Dustin Poirier 28-7 walk-in Submission · R3 2:00 — UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · November 12, 2022
43/100Sig. strikes
38/76Absorbed
3/7Takedowns
5:39Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Tony Ferguson 25-6 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 0:17 — UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 7, 2022
27/53Sig. strikes
20/50Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
2:31Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Justin Gaethje 22-3 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · November 6, 2021
103/245Sig. strikes
116/183Absorbed
1/6Takedowns
0:03Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Charles Oliveira 26-8 walk-in TITLE KO/TKO · R2 0:19 — UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
30/55Sig. strikes
24/32Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
2:27Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Dan Hooker 20-9 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:30 — UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · January 23, 2021
17/24Sig. strikes
8/19Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:09Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
23-11-0Pro record
Xtreme Couture (2009–2012), Alliance MMA (2012–2015), Power MMA (2015–2016), Kill Cliff FC (2017–present), Nashville MMA (2018–present)Gym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 11
Submission 7
Decision 5
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 5
Submission 1
Decision 4
Other 0

Fights by organization

Bellator 22
UFC 7
Bellator NYC 1
Strikeforce 1
Strikeforce Challengers 1
First Blood 1
Full career — 33 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Paddy Pimblett TKO (elbows and punches) UFC 314
April 12, 2025
UFC 3 3:07
L Charles Oliveira Decision (unanimous) UFC 309
November 16, 2024
UFC 5 5:00
L Dustin Poirier Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 281
November 12, 2022
UFC 3 2:00
W Tony Ferguson KO (front kick) UFC 274
May 7, 2022
UFC 2 0:17
L Justin Gaethje Decision (unanimous) UFC 268
November 6, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
L Charles Oliveira TKO (punches) UFC 262
May 15, 2021
UFC 2 0:19
W Dan Hooker TKO (punches) UFC 257
January 24, 2021
UFC 1 2:30
W Benson Henderson KO (punches) Bellator 243
August 7, 2020
Bellator 1 2:09
W Sidney Outlaw KO (punches) Bellator 237
December 29, 2019
Bellator 1 2:59
L Patrício Pitbull TKO (punches) Bellator 221
May 11, 2019
Bellator 1 1:01
W Brent Primus Decision (unanimous) Bellator 212
December 14, 2018
Bellator 5 5:00
W Brandon Girtz Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) Bellator 197
April 13, 2018
Bellator 1 4:00
W Goiti Yamauchi Decision (unanimous) Bellator 192
January 20, 2018
Bellator 3 5:00
L Brent Primus TKO (doctor stoppage) Bellator NYC
June 24, 2017
Bellator NYC 1 2:22
W Benson Henderson Decision (split) Bellator 165
November 19, 2016
Bellator 5 5:00
W Patricky Pitbull KO (punch) Bellator 157: Dynamite 2
June 24, 2016
Bellator 1 2:14
W David Rickels TKO (punches) Bellator 145
November 6, 2015
Bellator 2 3:05
W Derek Campos Submission (rear-naked choke) Bellator 138
June 19, 2015
Bellator 1 2:17
L Will Brooks TKO (punches) Bellator 131
November 15, 2014
Bellator 4 3:48
L Will Brooks Decision (split) Bellator 120
May 17, 2014
Bellator 5 5:00
L Eddie Alvarez Decision (split) Bellator 106
November 2, 2013
Bellator 5 5:00
W David Rickels KO (punches) Bellator 97
July 31, 2013
Bellator 1 0:44
W Rick Hawn Submission (rear-naked choke) Bellator 85
January 17, 2013
Bellator 2 3:07
W Akihiro Gono TKO (punches) Bellator 67
May 4, 2012
Bellator 1 0:56
W Eddie Alvarez Submission (rear-naked choke) Bellator 58
November 19, 2011
Bellator 4 3:06
W Patricky Pitbull Decision (unanimous) Bellator 44
May 14, 2011
Bellator 3 5:00
W Lloyd Woodard Decision (unanimous) Bellator 40
April 9, 2011
Bellator 3 5:00
W Marcin Held Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) Bellator 36
March 12, 2011
Bellator 1 3:56
W Chris Page Submission (standing guillotine choke) Bellator 32
October 14, 2010
Bellator 1 0:57
W Scott Stapp TKO (punches) Bellator 31
September 30, 2010
Bellator 1 1:57
W Sal Woods Submission (rear-naked choke) Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery
May 15, 2010
Strikeforce 1 0:59
W Richard Bouphanouvong TKO (punches) Strikeforce Challengers: Woodley vs. Bears
November 20, 2009
Strikeforce Challengers 2 2:07
W Kyle Swadley TKO (punches) First Blood
August 8, 2009
First Blood 1 3:30

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Michael Chandler) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.9 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 4.8 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 50.5% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 40.9% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 1.6 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 36.0% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 56.3% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.2 avg 0.6
Control time 18.8% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 50.7%

Headshot of Michael Chandler by Gage Skidmore · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons · cropped and resized

Hero photo of Michael Chandler by Gage Skidmore · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons