Roman Dolidze

Sides with de Ridder but repeats 'we'll see' twice and only hopes he avoids being timed on top.

A straightforward, physical striker the analyst calls 'meat and potatoes': a good step-in knee and a good one-two, but not much offered beyond that on the feet. His grappling is more varied: takedowns that come off the end of his strikes, the ability to sweep from bottom and get on top, and a real submission threat including a heel hook the analyst specifically respects. The analyst sees a path for Dolidze to win by timing his way to top position rather than by striking.

takes Dolidze as a spoiler underdog

His hands are graded ordinary -- a crisp combination and a sharp knee on entry, carrying enough pop to matter deep into a fight -- but his real case is the mat: takedowns set up directly off his own punches, heavy top control, strong sweeps, and a deep finishing arsenal. The heel hook draws special praise as a submission few fighters actually land cleanly, and he's named among that short list. Picked here as a spoiler despite being a sizable underdog.

Gives a specific round-by-round case (Dolidze's power/grappling acumen can win him the opening rounds, but the pace shifts toward Hernandez as it wears on) and an explicit scorecard prediction (a three-two decision); discounted one notch from what that specificity alone would otherwise support because he also discloses he's 'been backing Fluffy' for a long time, a longstanding personal preference the pick follows.

A decent striker with real power, a good one-two and a useful step-in knee, though his output trails Hernandez's. His grappling is the stronger side of his game: a legitimate, well-rounded grappler whose takedowns come off his strikes, with excellent sweeps, good top pressure once he gets there, and a 'surprising,' adequately-utilized heel hook in a submission arsenal the analyst calls pretty good. He's expected to have success early, especially round one, before the fight's pace shifts away from him.

He states plainly that, among his selections this card, this one carries the least conviction, and says he would favor the opponent if it were only three rounds; he goes the other way solely because of the extra rounds in a five-round main event.

Our words: primarily a grappler with a serviceable one-two and a favorite step-in knee on the feet. His real game is on the mat -- an extensive toolbox, excellent sweeps, and a deep submission arsenal including a rare UFC heel-hook finish. The analyst describes his current form as among the best of his run, with some favorable recent matchmaking along the way.

Dolidze is named plainly and repeatedly as the pick on a stated weight-class rationale: the analyst argues Holland's bottom-game grappling, however skilled, has repeatedly proven unusable against bigger, controlling grapplers at 185, calling it a pattern he's 'seen before.' He explicitly discloses being a Holland fan and picking against his own preference, and he does concede Holland likely wins if the fight stays standing -- but he directly rebuts that concession by explaining why he doesn't expect it to stay there, rather than leaving it unanswered.

Described as one of the rare big middleweights who is genuinely skilled on the ground rather than just using size, with a large and legitimate grappling toolbox. His submission arsenal is called top tier, with his heel hooks singled out as especially fast and dangerous. He is not rated as the better pure striker in this matchup, but has enough power and a good step-in knee to be functional there while he looks to close the distance and grapple.

First-person: he says he has to 'lean' toward Smith -- using the confidence vocabulary word itself, built on specific size/striking/grappling-closeness reasoning rather than a bare pick.

Not the cleanest pure striker but decent, built around a powerful one-two that sets up his takedowns, plus a knee on the entry that keeps opponents from working him in close range. Very good grappling with a large toolbox, excellent sweeps if taken down himself, and a deadly submission arsenal including the heel hook. The one real complication: Smith's added size may make it hard for Dolidze to move him around on the mat the way he can a same-size or smaller opponent, which is the analyst's stated reason for leaning the other way despite rating him the likely-better grappler.

He commits plainly to Dolidze, laying out a full mechanism: forcing Imavov's hands up to defend opens the door for Dolidze's power and his takedown/grappling path, where Imavov is said to struggle badly off his back. No hedge on the win anywhere in the chapter.

Dolidze is a grappler at his core: a massive, highly skilled and accomplished toolbox, who links takedowns onto the tail end of his combination punching and closes with a lightning-fast, well-timed heel hook. On the feet he is the more powerful of the two rather than the more technical, carrying a solid one-two and a good step-in knee. His stated path is forcing Imavov's hands up to defend, which opens the door for his takedowns and grappling.

keeps winning despite always being the underdog

Dolidze is a huge grappling toolbox with leg locks the analyst singles out as his best weapon, since most MMA fighters don't defend them well. His striking is unpolished but powerful enough to set up his takedowns, which tend to come at the tail of his own combinations rather than from pure wrestling. The analyst takes him here specifically against the market, noting he's always the underdog yet keeps winning.

backs Dolidze without reservation here and says a wager on him makes sense

A high-level grappler stepping in on short notice who he thinks is riding real momentum after an easy recent win and may have a specific stylistic answer for this matchup. He rates Dolidze the slightly better grappler of the two, skill for skill, in this fight.

Explicit, repeated outcome doubt -- he says twice he is 'not confident' and admits he lacks a real read on this one -- the pick is given only because the format requires naming someone, not because he believes it.

A very high-level, tournament-pedigreed grappler who uses cage pressure effectively. His clear weakness is output on the feet: low striking volume and telegraphed shots, which the analyst says limits how well he can compete at range against a boxer like Hawes.