Anthony Smith

Calls his own selection "a dumb pick," says the betting line is "atrocious"/"a monstrosity," and explicitly flags his own track record of bad picks on this exact fighter before committing anyway -- the heaviest self-undercut pick on the card.

Our paraphrase: explicitly his retirement fight. A direction-dependent striker -- good coming forward (landing shots, following with big elbows) but not good backing up, where he covers against the cage and only throws defensive front kicks. Good snapping front kick when he is the one initiating. Leg kick defense is described in the most negative terms on the card ("abysmal"). Durable enough to absorb a lot of volume before going out, with one clear exception where a past opponent got the better of him. Good submission arsenal and ground-and-pound if he gets the fight down, but he is content working off his back and his own takedowns have not materialized much in the UFC.

Admits the fight is a genuine struggle for him to call and acknowledges Reyes could dominate Smith on the feet, before still picking Smith.

A good striker moving forward -- long straight punches, closing-distance elbows, a snapping front kick -- but a genuinely poor striker moving backward, called a specific, exploitable flaw. Tough and durable overall, having absorbed heavy damage and stayed around, though leg-kick defense is rated horrible. Slick jiu-jitsu with a strong submission arsenal if he can get on top, though securing takedowns on his own terms is difficult. Recently switched coaches to Dean Thomas.

First-person: he says he has to 'lean' toward Smith -- using the confidence vocabulary word itself, built on specific size/striking/grappling-closeness reasoning rather than a bare pick.

Very good when moving forward -- strong elbows that stop an opponent's advance, and an excellent snapping front kick to the body -- but genuinely poor moving backward, where he covers up, eats shots, and becomes what the analyst calls a sitting duck; he says that tendency hasn't shown up in his last few fights, which is a real improvement. Leg kick defense is called broken outright, though he is incredibly durable and has fought through serious damage before. A very good, toolbox-heavy grappler with a real submission arsenal, but too often content working from his back, which costs him minutes. Picked with a size edge as the deciding factor in an otherwise close matchup.

The analyst's own technical case favors the opponent outright -- he says so in plain terms -- then he explicitly sets that aside for a personal, community-based reason to favor Smith instead. Per corpus guidance a pick made on that basis is not a confident analytical read however it is phrased, and no analytical support for a Smith win is offered anywhere in the chapter -- confidence is set at the floor on the analytical content alone.

Smith is cast as the more well-rounded fighter with a deeper overall skill set, solid forward striking including entry elbows and a snapping front kick, and a long track record of absorbing damage -- though a recent, ugly knockout loss raises some doubt about that durability going forward. His read-killer per the analyst is retreating: he struggles moving away from pressure, loses power on his kicks once backed to the fence, and becomes an easy target; on the ground he has the better submission and ground-and-pound tools but is comfortable staying underneath rather than fighting back up, which the analyst calls a waste of his own ability. The STATED PICK here is Smith, but on an explicitly non-analytical, personal basis: the analyst says plainly that the opponent is the analytically better fighter and that he is choosing with sentiment rather than analysis, because Smith is a hometown figure he cannot bring himself to pick against.

He gives a real mechanism (Smith gets the takedown and the fight becomes his to lose), but explicitly discloses that part of his pick is personal fondness for Smith, including a comment about Smith living near his gym -- a disclosed bias the pick follows, which discounts the otherwise confident framing.

His offense plays best moving forward; backing up is a clear soft spot, and that can get him pinned against the fence. His durability is the saving grace there. He uses elbows from several angles and an upward-snapping kick to the body specifically to stop opponents from advancing on him, but the single biggest concern raised is that he has little real answer for leg kicks. On the ground he is a large-toolbox grappler the analyst calls underrated, with savage ground-and-pound from top position, though he is sometimes too willing to stay on his back rather than work up.

The underdog price on the favorite is called out as absurd and the fight is treated as already decided; no hedge anywhere on the outcome, with doubt left only on the exact round or finishing sequence.

A good striker moving forward who lands heavy and throws sharp elbows and a sharp front kick, but is a different, worse fighter moving backward, where he can get cornered and cover up. Durable, with a glaring leg-kick-defense hole that simply hasn't come up much lately against the competition he's faced. His grappling is a real weapon -- a wide toolbox, strong ground-and-pound, and real submission range -- though he can get comfortable working off his back. A heavy finisher overall, with the clear majority of his career wins coming by stoppage.

A conditional pick -- he wins "if" he presses forward rather than retreating, supported by a recent fight where he says Smith did exactly that -- while the opponent's one-punch finishing ability is acknowledged as his best path in just about any fight and is not directly closed off.

A high-volume striker who looks dominant walking opponents down behind big punches and a lead elbow, but turns into what the analyst calls a sitting duck when he goes backward, especially with his back on the cage. He carries a large Jiu-Jitsu toolbox but is faulted for sometimes staying passive in bad spots rather than working. He is a proven finisher overall (the large majority of his career wins by stoppage). The pick rests on a specific belief: a recent performance shows he has learned to press forward rather than retreat, and doing so against this particular opponent should take away the athletic advantage.