Reinier de Ridder

Sides with de Ridder but repeats 'we'll see' twice and only hopes he avoids being timed on top.

An awkward-looking but effective striker with a decent jab, decent power and genuinely nasty knees that work despite the ugly technique. His grappling is the stronger half of his game: not-pretty but functional takedowns, good throws, a really good submission arsenal, and a good cage push into damaging dirty boxing. The analyst's single biggest worry is his willingness to work from his back, which he says is the reason he'd lose if he loses.

says it's a 50-50 fight

Though his stand-up looks unconventional and ungainly, de Ridder still earns a good-striker grade simply because the approach produces results for him: he marches forward with decent power, a decent jab and nasty body knees. His grappling is solid, with decent takedowns, really good throws, a submission arsenal, ground and pound, and good dirty boxing against the cage, with his cage pressure called one of his better weapons overall. His one clear drawback, called a recurring issue across many of his fights, is a willingness to work from his own back.

States the pick plainly and closes on it twice, backed by a cited personal track record of correct picks on this fighter; a mild 'probably' does not undercut the closing declaration.

A striker with an unorthodox, awkward look the analyst rated lower before and now puts a notch higher, pointing in particular to how heavily he leans on knees; decent power and a decent jab round out the striking. A really solid grappler -- effective if unorthodox takedowns via throws, a submission game rated good, ground-and-pound rated good as well, and a cage push/dirty-boxing/clinch game the analyst calls deadly. The analyst notes a personal record of having correctly picked him in every UFC fight so far, including as an underdog against notable opponents.

settles on a mere lean toward de Ridder, admits outright he does not feel good about the call and may end up looking foolish, and grants that conventional wisdom has the champ-caliber striker winning this

A decent, unpolished striker whose output works for him more than it looks like it should, with a decent jab and really good knees (helped by his height). He is genuinely underrated: a solid grappler who is good on the mat with good throws, decent control-based takedowns, a really good submission arsenal, and ground-and-pound better than he gets credit for. Both of his career losses are to the same man.

Multiple separate hedges about the matchup's difficulty, plus an explicit acknowledgment of a realistic path where his pick loses, sit right next to the final call -- real conviction, but not free of doubt, landing at lean rather than clear.

Decent striker mainly on the strength of a good knee (helped by his size) and a passable jab. The real strength is solid grappling: good throws, decent takedowns, a submission arsenal the analyst calls far ahead of his opponent's, and ground-and-pound he has used effectively to open up finishes before. His positioning can look loose and scrambly at times, which the analyst flags as a real concern against a wrestler, but the pick rests on his grappling comfort nullifying the takedown game entirely.

Announces flatly that he has no real conviction here and isn't putting anything on the fight -- essentially a pick-'em in his own words -- before still landing on de Ridder, while admitting he could just as easily flip to the other side.

A grappler who rarely shoots conventional takedowns but is excellent at getting there through throws and trip entries. Once it's down, his ground work is solid and his submission game is a real weapon, though he can occasionally chase a submission at the cost of losing position -- the analyst points to a finish over a named opponent as proof he's legitimate there. His hands are rough around the edges but have a couple of real bright spots: tall-man knees that catch people off guard, awkward footwork, and a serviceable jab. His ability to absorb punishment is also questioned specifically against a heavy-handed opponent.

Picks De Ridder over Mearschaert, framed through the root-beer spectator idiom and called one of the 'landmines'; he also explicitly concedes Mearschaert could win it late, adding that such a result would not shock him at all -- a named winner plus a hedging idiom and an unrebutted conceded path, capped at coinflip.

A UFC debutant with a genuinely elite Judo/Jiu-Jitsu combination -- his throws are excellent and rare to see at this level, backed by a massive submission arsenal and very effective ground-and-pound. His decent traditional takedowns are secondary to his throws. On the feet his natural length (roughly 6'4") gives him a good knee up the middle and a decent jab, though he is clearly more grappler than striker. Separately, the analyst flags a round-bounded pattern: De Ridder tends to be ahead early, with Mearschaert specifically dangerous in round three.