Kevin Holland

says he does not feel confident

A solid long, rangy striker with good range control, power (surprisingly hard-hitting), accuracy, fast hands and good striking defense. A good grappler who rarely uses it offensively but is dangerous off his back with sweeps, scrambles, and especially quick front chokes (darce, anaconda, guillotine). Can be held down. His biggest drawback is explicitly framed as mental rather than physical: when he loses a first round he struggles to recover for the rest of the fight, visibly frustrated in the corner, which is the stated reason he is not favored here.

Self-rated directly: 'very low confidence pick' -- the clearest first-person confidence statement on the card.

A much better striker than grappler. Super solid, underrated-defense striking with fast hands, accuracy and real knockout power behind long punches. A good grappler offensively (sweeps, scrambles, active from his back, quick submission attempts including nasty front chokes) but his takedown defense is not his best, and once flattened out he loses essentially all of that offense and stays there. The analyst explicitly adds a new 'inconsistent' characterization this video, tied to his swings in form across weight classes.

He gives a real mechanism: Holland's superior range, power, accuracy and defense against a more basic, comfort-zone boxer, with no hedge on the winner at all.

A solid striker who controls range well, helped by a long-armed leverage advantage the analyst compares to the snap of a whip, with real power behind it, very good accuracy, and fast hands. His striking defense is described as underrated: he rarely gets hit flush outside of one named past fight. His grappling can also take over if needed: good sweeps and scrambles, active even from his back, with front chokes the analyst calls top tier, though his own takedown defense is not the best and he can be held down.

He lands on Holland without reservation, saying his opponent won't hold up once clean shots start getting through, pointing to range, power and defense edges.

His hands are rated among the sharpest on this card -- excellent distance management, real pop, precision, solid defense and genuinely quick hands -- putting him clearly ahead on the feet in this pairing. His weak link is the mat: a capable jiu-jitsu game with sweeps, scrambles and quick submission attacks (chokes especially), undercut by takedown denial that falls apart against bigger, stronger opponents, and a tendency to stay stuck once pinned there.

'The one and four stretch' is cited directly, and he commits fully: 'we're taking Gunnar Nelson.'

As of 2025-03-16, not his newest read. A solid, accurate striker with good range control and fast hands, whose striking defense the analyst says is better than its reputation. His jiu-jitsu offense is good from the back, but his takedown defense is the stated problem: once grounded he gets flattened out and controlled. The analyst points to a recent 1-4 stretch and a pattern of collapsing when he doesn't have a strong first round.

Announces flatly that he has no real conviction here and isn't putting anything on the fight -- essentially a pick-'em in his own words -- before still landing on de Ridder, while admitting he could just as easily flip to the other side.

A standup fighter with serious pop, pinpoint accuracy, excellent range management and real snap on his shots; his defense on the feet is rated highly and, in the analyst's view, underappreciated -- simply the superior kickboxer here by a wide margin. Capable on the ground too, with scrambling ability and a reliable choke from the front, but his ability to stop a takedown is a real question mark, so distance management matters more than relying on that; he can be pinned down at points. Part of the pick's reasoning rests on a secondhand claim that he sours and underperforms after a rough opening round.

Dolidze is named plainly and repeatedly as the pick on a stated weight-class rationale: the analyst argues Holland's bottom-game grappling, however skilled, has repeatedly proven unusable against bigger, controlling grapplers at 185, calling it a pattern he's 'seen before.' He explicitly discloses being a Holland fan and picking against his own preference, and he does concede Holland likely wins if the fight stays standing -- but he directly rebuts that concession by explaining why he doesn't expect it to stay there, rather than leaving it unanswered.

Judged by a wide margin the sharper striker here -- power, distance management, precision, hand speed and a varied attack -- and also credited with a genuinely strong bottom-game jiu-jitsu, including good sweeps, scrambles and a quick front-choke attack. The stated problem is specific to this weight class: his ability to stop a takedown breaks down once bigger, equally skilled grapplers get him to the mat at 185, which the analyst frames as a recurring pattern rather than a one-off.

States directly and without qualification that he thinks Holland wins; the separate underdog-pricing comment is framed as a value/price remark, not doubt about the outcome.

Longer, higher-output striker with good range, speed and accuracy, plus real submission grappling (good sweeps, scrambles and especially front chokes given his long arms). Called very durable and expected to shrug off Oleksiejczuk's power, though the analyst notes he has had more success at welterweight than middleweight.

Uses the word 'lean' for his own pick, then separately calls it 'a tough fight to call,' says he's 'sitting on the fence,' and adds he 'won't be surprised' if Page wins by finish.

Solid, long, diverse striker with real power for his frame, accuracy, speed, and underrated striking defense -- he's good at getting just out of range and rolling with shots, plus genuine durability. His biggest edge is grappling: a massive advantage on the mat with especially good front chokes he sets up by pressuring with his long-range strikes to bait takedown attempts, plus sweeps and scrambles. Picked as the analyst's lean, with real acknowledgment that it's a close, hard-to-call fight that could also end with him getting finished.

Opens with the word 'lean' toward Holland but develops into a fully committed pick with a specific, repeated finish call -- a submission named twice in a row -- and closes flatly with a plain statement that Holland is the winner. The stated mechanism is concrete: Holland's range control baiting Maddalena into a takedown attempt he can counter with the guillotine. No hedge on the win itself survives to the final statement, so this is graded clear rather than lean; the initial 'lean' wording is noted in case the Grader reads it differently.

A solid striker who uses his long range very effectively, throwing powerful, snapping straight punches, plus a good diversity of attack including some unconventional strikes that keep opponents guessing. Very accurate with fast hands, and his defense is excellent -- hard to hit because of his length and head movement. Doesn't wrestle offensively but has good jiu-jitsu, including good front chokes and good sweeps/scrambles, which the analyst says show up better against opponents who aren't naturally big for the weight class.

Repeats "I think he wins" and "pretty clear" that Holland stops Chiesa from closing, with no stated path for Chiesa beyond a conditional late scramble.

A long, range-based striker who uses his reach to land straight punches with power, accuracy and speed while staying hard to hit himself. His Jiu-Jitsu is also graded good, with front chokes, sweeps and scrambles, though the analyst doubts he will need to show much of it here. The clear game plan the analyst expects is to keep the fight at range where Chiesa has little threat.

The pick is plainly named and he says he feels 'pretty good about it', but the supporting clauses are hedged on the win itself: Holland 'should be able to' prevail, the finish is only 'eventually' and not in round one, and the closing remark keeps Ponzinibbio 'live in the matchup' through a heavy shot, leg kicks or a flying knee. He also concedes the opponent would have been his pick before the layoff. 'Should' on the win plus a live route left standing caps it at lean; the timing uncertainty on the finish is method-level and was not what decided it.

Taken to win, most likely by a late finish in the second or third round, using his much longer reach to work from distance and land accurate, heavy-looking shots. The analyst rates his submission game highly and says he now holds the edge as the better fighter, especially against an opponent coming off a long injury-related layoff. His takedown defense is only so-so, though improved, and strong wrestlers can pin him.

states Holland as his pick and does not waver from it despite liking the other man personally

A younger striker with real reach and surprising power who he thinks is entering his athletic prime. He credits real jiu-jitsu, including finishes from unusual positions, but flags a specific technical habit: Holland drops his guard hand when winding up his own power shots, which he thinks a kicker like Thompson can punish.

Says "all signs" favor Holland and commits to him as his pick, paired with staking caution ("don't bet the house") and an open invitation to be argued out of it.

Holland holds a massive reach advantage (81in vs. 74in) and is expected to land his jab before Rodriguez can. The analyst notes he has looked considerably better since moving back down to welterweight than he did late in his middleweight run, even though that middleweight stretch was against some of the division's best. His sneaky jiu-jitsu has produced real submission wins, but the one hole in his game is struggling against truly top-tier, high-level wrestlers specifically.