Brendan Allen

leaning towards Brandon Allen

Allen has developed into a legitimately good striker with good punch volume, a strong body kick, and newly sharp clinch elbows, but he struggles moving backward, which the analyst flags as a problem against Duncan. His grappling (good takedowns, strong clinch work, back-control finishing) is rated clearly ahead of Duncan's on the ground.

He states a pick-vs-bet split outright and says he might back the opponent's round-one knockout price, even while predicting Allen -- a hedge on the win itself, not just the route.

A good striker whose output has come a long way from an earlier, weaker point -- good body kick, combinations, volume and an active jab -- though he moves backward poorly, which matters early since he is expected to be pushed back in round one. His real advantage is a significant edge on the ground: good takedowns, good scrambles, a very good back-take and good control once there, fishing for the rear-naked choke. He has been knocked out before, including by a fighter not known for knockout power.

States the pick plainly and closes on it twice, backed by a cited personal track record of correct picks on this fighter; a mild 'probably' does not undercut the closing declaration.

A good striker who is not as sharp retreating but poses a real threat marching forward, bringing a jab, combination output and a strong kick to the body -- the analyst expects his technique to look cleaner than the opponent's. A solid grappler whose takedowns earn a pretty-good grade, whose scrambling is credited, and whose back-control is rated particularly highly (he holds position once there), plus a good rear naked choke. He is replacing the originally scheduled opponent and is fighting on short notice, which the analyst calls a tough ask against this opponent.

He picks Allen because the cleaner, better striker should land repeatedly on a durable but rarely-blocking Vettori over three rounds to a decision; the only hedge is on HOW it ends, not who wins -- he doubts Vettori has 'taken enough damage' yet to be finished.

A good, clean striker with a strong body kick and good combinations and output, but the analyst says his striking comes apart once he's moving backward rather than forward. His grappling is rated solid: good takedowns, strong scrambles, a reliable back-take game and a rear naked choke he can get on most opponents, plus great cardio. The analyst frames him as the better pure striker here but expects a competitive, tricky fight on the feet.

Takes Hernandez on the memory of the first meeting and his pressure, but calls it a tough fight between two skilled men, expects a close 29-28 style decision, and notes rematches often do not repeat.

The cleaner, more technical striker of the two: good combinations, a standout body kick and decent volume, but he is worse going backward, so his output drops if he cannot keep moving forward. His grappling is solid, with great takedowns, good scrambles and a standout back-taking game finished by a very dangerous rear-naked choke. He has improved a lot since the first meeting. He took a defensible loss to a top-five opponent in his last five.

He names Allen as his pick and states he expects Allen to win, repeated with a stated mechanism (the grappling gap decides it). A wish that this were a five-round fight is a format preference, not a hedge on who wins, so it does not demote the grade.

A good, improving striker -- the analyst notes explicitly that "he wasn't always" this good and that people underrate his current takedowns -- with a dangerous body kick, whose real threat is a complete, elite-level grappling game: great scrambles, incredible back takes, and a finishing rear naked choke that has stopped notable names. His cardio is called fantastic, evidenced by staying effective through a prior five-round fight.

Explicitly says he does not feel confident and is only leaning toward Curtis by a small margin, directly against his own earlier public pick of Allen as a year-end champion -- a direct qualifier on the win itself, softened only by a real stylistic mechanism (Curtis's forward pressure/body work being Allen's known Kryptonite). No stay-away or root-beer language; he commits to a side, just softly, and his own wording is a lean rather than a conviction pick.

Described as riding a 5-0 run in his last five and holding his own as a striker, landing combinations with plenty of output and a body kick singled out as his best/favorite weapon. He is the superior grappler in this matchup if the fight hits the mat -- strong in that department, with good takedowns, strong back-taking, and a go-to rear-naked choke -- and cardio is not a concern over five rounds. His one repeated flaw, cited twice (this same opponent's first fight and the Sean Strickland fight), is that his striking falls apart when a forward-pressure opponent makes him move backward.

Root-beer-equivalent staking pattern: he explicitly names Allen as his pick and says plainly that he is leaning that way, but in the same breath refuses to put money on Allen, saying any bet of his own would go on Craig instead, and tells viewers to either skip the fight or back the opponent -- the idiom's substance (name a winner, then steer money away from him) without the literal word, which the standing rule caps at coinflip.

A strong wrestler who the analyst calls 'darn good' and 'very solid' there -- both off-ladder intensifiers of 'good', not the canonical word itself, so the overall wrestling rung is recorded from the board only despite the enthusiastic language. Good takedowns, a very good back-taker who hunts the rear naked choke as his best submission, and good scrambles. On the feet he has good combinations and a notably good body kick, plus excellent cardio suited to a five-round fight.

Uses the root-beer idiom and says outright this is a pass fight he will not bet, naming Allen as a low-confidence pick.

Brendan Allen is a good striker with good combinations and body kicks who struggles more when forced to back up. His wrestling is solid -- he has solid takedowns and seeks submissions, and the analyst points to his finish of Andre Muniz last fight as evidence his grappling is progressing. His cardio is very good.

He names Muniz as the pick but describes his comfort level as only middling -- he says plainly that there are not many spots on this whole card he actually likes, and this fight is not one of his favorites either.

Normally the superior grappler across his own career, here he is not expected to out-grapple Muniz. His striking is pretty good at every range -- far, mid-range boxing, and in the clinch -- though he does let himself get hit at times. His own live BJJ game could create an upset path if he is willing to engage Muniz there, but the analyst thinks if he does, Muniz is more likely to finish him.

He states the pick directly and commits to it by name. He adds a mild caveat about the odds not being a sure thing, consistent with this analyst's stock disclaimer language used elsewhere on the card, paired with a real stated mechanism (grappling advantage, ability to force the fight). Kept at clear rather than emphatic because of that caveat.

Well-rounded with a real grappling advantage -- has choked out opponents considered tough to finish. Can make the fight ugly and force it to the ground or into a grind. Has beaten higher-level names than Jotko's own best win. The analyst frames 'well-rounded' here as a genuine positive rather than the backhanded label he says it usually is.