Irene Aldana

He builds a real mechanism (her cage push and top pressure are how her two prior losers also beat Aldana's style), acknowledges it's hard to bank on a fighter executing a gameplan, but still settles on Dumont by decision.

Rated solid on offense as a striker -- her punch output, her pop, and how she chains shots together all draw praise, and she targets the midsection effectively, plus a leg kick that's rated decent. Checking leg kicks herself is a real problem, something that hurt her badly in a past bout. On the mat she's decent and stays busy off her back, but getting pinned there is a live issue, and that pattern is exactly how both of her career losses (both against elite-level opposition) unfolded. As of 2024-09-11.

longer reach lands first

Our paraphrase: Aldana is primarily a boxer with good power, volume, combinations and footwork, and the analyst calls her the better pure striker of the two, helped by a real height/reach advantage. Her grappling is more mixed -- active off her back but can be held down -- and is described only by comparison to Rosa ('similar') rather than with her own stated grade.

Names this as the single fight on the card he trusts most, treats it as parlay-safe at a roughly -300/-310 price, and voices no doubt anywhere in the breakdown -- the least-hedged pick on this card.

Irene Aldana's calling card is pure boxing -- the analyst goes so far as to say her hands, skill-for-skill, outclass Nunes's -- built on real volume, power, counters and footwork, plus a leg kick she has added to her toolkit more recently. Defensively and on the ground she is the clearly weaker side: she goes down fairly easily and can be controlled there, though the analyst credits her with genuine recent growth in her bottom-position activity, including hunting for finishes, even while saying that still is not her road to winning this particular fight.

Calls it one of his "least confident" picks on the card, taking Aldana mostly to have an answer rather than from real conviction.

Aldana gives up height and reach here, but the analyst expects her footwork to offset Chiasson's length, and credits her with outsized punching power -- among the division's biggest hitters per the board's own bullet. Her gameplan is framed as staying in open space rather than letting Chiasson work the clinch.