Macy Chiasson

States his pick for Perez twice in a row, with a clear mechanism - Chiasson's weight-cut-driven cardio problem versus Perez's strong gas tank - and Chiasson's one real threat (the cage push) explicitly hedged as hard for her to land.

Will be the cleaner, better striker at distance - good range use and a jab she sticks well - but her volume, which used to be good, has visibly dipped lately, which the analyst attributes to a difficult cut down to 135 hurting her cardio. Good grappling: a really good cage push with control if she can land it, a serviceable takedown game of her own, and a brutal ground and pound. Picked against despite the analyst disclosing he is a fan of hers.

States plainly 'I'm taking Macy [Chiasson] to win this one' on a specific mechanism (cage control, ground-and-pound) and says he would not be surprised if she finishes Santos early.

Called a good striker in her own right -- sticks the jab, good volume, uses her range well -- though rated a notch below Santos on the feet outside of power. Her real advantage is grappling: a good cage push with control, decent takedowns and ground-and-pound described as pretty vicious, making her the better overall grappler by a clear margin.

He names the winner explicitly, by name, three separate times while laying out the gameplan, and closes by calling this a clear-cut pick for her, with a stated mechanism (push Vieira to the cage, control range, work the jab).

Macy Chiasson sticks a good jab, carries real volume, and is comfortable operating at distance, helped by an unusually long reach for the division since she naturally sits at a heavier weight class before cutting down. Her grappling is good as well -- serviceable takedowns and strong ground-and-pound -- and the analyst singles out her cage control as her single best tool and the specific route he expects her to use to win, pressing Vieira toward the fence where Vieira is known to struggle.

Lays out a specific round-by-round plan and says plainly he thinks she 'got this one'; the only uncertainty is over the exact scorecard numbers, a margin/method question, not the winner.

A size and reach advantage sets up her whole plan: good-volume striking that regularly outlands opponents, strong use of range, and a jab she can stick before Bueno Silva is even close enough to answer. Good wrestling as a secondary path -- a strong cage push with good control and ground-and-pound -- but the analyst specifically wants her to lean on the cage push over committing to takedowns, since getting taken down herself or ending up caught would hand Bueno Silva her best weapon. Picked to grind the first round, then win late as the fight opens up.

'Chiasson's probably getting the win here' -- 'probably' is a direct qualifier on the WIN itself, which demotes per the confidence-bar rule, despite the firm closing line 'Chiasson is the pick'.

Good striker with heavy volume who controls range effectively behind a consistent jab, plus a strong cage-push wrestling game with solid ground-and-pound once on top. The analyst's stated read is that her jab and range management specifically take away the opponent's technical striking edge, which is why she is the pick despite being rated the less skilled pure striker.

Calls it one of his "least confident" picks on the card, taking Aldana mostly to have an answer rather than from real conviction.

Chiasson is the taller, rangier fighter with a real reach advantage (68.5in vs 72in) whose best path to victory is working the clinch against the cage and hitting elbows on the separation. The analyst draws a direct comparison to the earlier Pickett-Tiuliulin bout on this card. His real concern is whether she makes weight cleanly and has the gas tank for it, which is the stated reason he leans away from her.