Lucie Pudilova

He gives a specific round-by-round mechanism (Carolina wins rounds one and two, Pudilova rallies in the third but falls short) and an explicit scorecard ("gonna lose 2928"). His stated sadness about picking against Pudilova is disclosed fan bias, not a hedge on the win itself, so it does not demote the grade.

A decent, hard-hitting striker who tends to turn fights into brawls (an explicitly ambiguous plus/minus for her), paired with decent wrestling that is strong on top but very weak once she is put on her back.

Extensive skill-for-skill case -- he repeatedly says she is better everywhere and calls her definitely the pick -- with no hedge on the win itself; a disclosed fan-bias aside (admitting he favors her personally) comes only as a closing addendum after the full analytical case, so it is recorded as a discount factor rather than the basis of the pick.

A decent striker with a little power and good volume, cleaner on the straights than her opponent. The analyst says she is a much different, more developed fighter than in her first UFC run, having worked on her grappling since. Decent takedowns, better top control, and very good ground-and-pound; she is, however, weak off her own back.

Graded lean. The pick is stated outright, but the support is hedged from start to finish: he says he 'could totally be off', is not very sure of this one, and is simply leaning. The case rides on one route, takedowns followed by top damage, and Edwards staying upright is left open. A brawl is described as impossible to call. His decision call concerns method and does not lower the grade. Defensible alternative: coinflip.

Pudilova returns to the UFC after time away with a reportedly improved wrestling game. The analyst picks her because he expects her to find takedowns at some point in the rounds and punish from top position, while conceding that a stand-up exchange with Edwards could go either way, and he projects a decision.