Skip to content
UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Featherweight · “Mean Machine”

Steve Garcia

19-6-0 UFC 8-3-0
One-Punch Power Finisher Gets Dropped
6'0"Height
75"Reach
SouthpawStance
34Age
7KO wins
0Sub wins
87.5%Finish rate
6:11Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Strong, rated 86 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking solid · Jun 2026 · stats read 78 → nudged +0 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +2, striking volume +1, striking technique +2, pressure +1 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 63 of 100 · claims striking technique +2 (+4) Striking D — Strong, rated 90 of 100 · claims head movement +3 (+4) Durability — Weak, rated 9 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 48 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Sep 2024 · stats read 26 → nudged -11 inside the band · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 80 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Jun 2026 · stats read 81 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims td defense +2 (+4) Grappling — Average, rated 54 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling good · Jun 2026 · stats read 45 → nudged -4 inside the band · claims sub defense -1, ground and pound +2 (+1) Control — Average, rated 54 of 100 · claims top control +2, ground and pound +2 (+11) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking solid
8 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Garcia vs Onama Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · October 28, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady · September 4, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Lemos vs Jandiroba Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 94) · July 15, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · November 28, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · April 4, 2023 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Full Card Preview, Prediction, & Analysis · October 26, 2022 watch ↗
grappling good whiteboard
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 · whiteboard watch ↗
wrestling good
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady · September 4, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Lemos vs Jandiroba Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 94) · July 15, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · November 28, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · April 4, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking solid 8 reads
grappling good 1 read · whiteboard
wrestling good 5 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Control · stats alone on Durability.

Built on 68 minutes of tracked cage time across 11 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

One-Punch Power 8 knockdowns · 1.76 per 15 min
Finisher 88% of wins by knockout or submission (7 KO, 0 sub)
Gets Dropped knocked down 6 times in 68 minutes of cage time
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.98
Sig. strikes absorbed / min2.01
Striking accuracy47.1%
Striking defense63.2%
Knockdowns / 15 min1.76
Takedowns / 15 min0.88
Takedown accuracy57.1%
Takedown defense80.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.44
Control time15.2%
Record vs .500+ opponents3-2

Insider info

8 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Diego Lopes coinflip UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026
strikingsolid wrestlinggood

says he can't decide, then goes 'slightly' with Garcia for a mental-edge reason, not a skill gap

A dangerous striker whose head movement has sharpened recently, throwing power shots from unusual angles that make him hard to predict. He has real forward pressure and heavy hands, and the analyst credits a wrestling background for solid takedown defense and top control. He has been finishing opponents convincingly and shows no obvious holes right now.

Strengthimproved head movement
Strengthpower from odd angles, hard to read
Strengthgood footwork and volume
Strengthgood takedown defense, good top control and ground-and-pound
Strengthhard to take down
Weaknesswas more hittable before his head movement improved
td defense · good
vs David Onama clear UFC Fight Night Garcia vs Onama Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · October 28, 2025 · 1 read since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

He concedes the clinch exchanges to Onama specifically, but still lands on Garcia overall, citing his range control and likely grappling edge as the deciding factors.

A good striker who presses forward carrying a lot of power, with solid footwork and a busy work rate, throwing from varied angles in a way the analyst specifically likes. His stated best path is to stay at range and land his power from distance. He may also carry a grappling edge here -- better takedown defense, solid top position, and heavy ground strikes once he lands there. As of 2025-10-28 (his newest known read).

Strengthgood striker: power, footwork, volume, varied punch angles
Strengthbetter takedown defense
Strengthgood top control, pretty good ground and pound
td defense · good
vs Kyle Nelson coinflip UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady · September 4, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

root beer idiom plus explicit 'stay away'

Presses forward behind a boxing-leaning style with sharp footwork, carrying both pop and output that have been producing finishes recently. Strong grappling too -- reliable defense against entries and good control on top, with punishing ground-and-pound once he lands there. Picked with genuine hesitation in what is called a near-mirror matchup against Nelson.

Strengthgood forward pressure, boxing-style footwork
Strengthpower and volume -- producing recent finishes
Strengthgood takedown defense and top control
Strengthdangerous ground-and-pound on top
ko power · good
vs SeungWoo Choi clear UFC Fight Night Lemos vs Jandiroba Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 94) · July 15, 2024 · 3 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

An explicit, unhedged declaration naming Garcia twice as his pick, reasoned on momentum and activity level, with a specific two-path mechanism (a knockout given Choi's suspect striking defense, or a wrestling edge if it goes to the ground). No hedge on the win, no wager caution.

On a tear with real momentum: a good, boxing-heavy striker with good power, forward pressure, volume and footwork, plus a good wrestling game -- great pressure from top position, a reliable takedown defense, and really good ground and pound. The analyst explicitly flags he is underrated as a striker, saying most people don't credit him as one.

Strengthon a tear, has momentum, the more active fighter
Strengthgood boxing -- power, forward pressure, volume, footwork
Strengthgood wrestling -- great top pressure, good takedown defense, really good ground and pound
td defense · good
vs Melquizael Costa coinflip UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 · 4 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

He states the pick is Costa but immediately attaches zero confidence to it, calling the matchup razor-thin, and says outright he would not bet Costa here and would instead bet the Garcia side -- naming a winner while steering money the other way.

A good boxer who presses forward with good movement, heavy volume and knockdown (not one-shot) power, following up well after he hurts someone. His wrestling and takedown defense are rated good, and he is expected to be able to stop Costa's takedowns and win top control if the fight does hit the mat.

Strengthgood boxer, forward pressure, good movement and volume
Strengthknockdown power with good follow-up
Strengthgood wrestling/takedown defense, good top control
vs Mela Costa coinflip UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · November 28, 2023 · 5 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

Analyst explicitly says he has "zero confidence in this pick." Separately he leans Costa "real real slight" and says he would personally bet the other side -- a direct hedge on the win itself.

Steve Garcia is read as a forward-pressure boxer with real volume and knockdown-level (not one-shot) power, backed by solid wrestling that should let him stop Costa's takedowns and control top position if the fight hits the mat. The analyst notes a personal history of betting on Garcia, including a prior low-confidence pick that paid off out of spite -- background color, not technical content.

Strengthgood forward-pressure boxing with volume
Strengthknockdown power, follows up well
Strengthgood takedown defense
Strengthgood top control and ground-and-pound if it gets there
td defense · good
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke coinflip UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · April 4, 2023 · 6 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

Graded coinflip. He names Garcia, but closes by saying he has "almost no confidence" in the call; the single thing he is sure of is that the fight will be wild. He also frames Garcia as a live underdog (the betting sense of the word, a price remark), and concedes that if the other man gets the takedown he most likely wins by ground strikes. Lean was the alternative, given the argument he builds, but the explicit disclaimer decides it.

A craftier veteran boxer with good takedown defence who is picked, very tentatively, to keep the fight upright long enough to land shots on a more powerful opponent who carries his hands low. Both men are forward-moving and wrestling-capable, so the bout turns on who controls the takedown exchanges.

StrengthGood boxing, with volume, footwork and a reach to use
StrengthTakedown defence is good enough to stuff attempts and then work from on top
StrengthExperience and craft
WeaknessLess power than the opponent
WeaknessIf the takedown arrives, ground and pound is the most likely loss route
td defense · goodko power · decent
vs Chase Hooper clear UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Full Card Preview, Prediction, & Analysis · October 26, 2022 · 7 reads since
strikingdecent

Gives an explicit numeric read ('80 for me') backed by a real mechanism (reach, BJJ, durability); closes with a self-directed question about whether he's overrating Hooper, which is self-aware but not a withdrawal of the pick.

Moving down a weight class for this fight, which puts him in the unfamiliar position of being the smaller, shorter fighter after being the bigger man at lightweight. He has decent striking of his own but the analyst does not expect his wrestling to be a sound strategic option against Hooper's superior jiu-jitsu, calling it a poor fight-IQ decision if attempted.

Strengthdecent striking
Weaknessmoving down in weight means facing a bigger, longer opponent than he is used to
Weaknesswrestling against this specific opponent would be a poor strategic choice given the opponent's grappling

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
October 29, 2022 vs Chase Hooper — 18.91/min (W) — only 1.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Oct '22 April 8, 2023 vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke — 3.04/min (W) Apr '23 December 9, 2023 vs Melquizael Costa — 4.82/min (W) Dec '23 July 20, 2024 vs SeungWoo Choi — 9.38/min (W) — only 1.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jul '24 September 7, 2024 vs Kyle Nelson — 5.52/min (W) — only 4.0 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '24 July 12, 2025 vs Calvin Kattar — 5.67/min (W) Jul '25 November 1, 2025 vs David Onama — 9.25/min (W) — only 3.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Nov '25 June 14, 2026 vs Diego Lopes — 6.1/min (L) Jun '26

Fight history

11 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Diego Lopes 27-8 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 2:42 — UFC Freedom 250 · June 14, 2026
47/104Sig. strikes
24/66Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W David Onama 14-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:34 — UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · November 1, 2025
33/62Sig. strikes
2/16Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Calvin Kattar 23-9 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · July 12, 2025
85/250Sig. strikes
26/123Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Kyle Nelson 16-5-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:59 — UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · September 7, 2024
22/37Sig. strikes
1/2Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
1:36Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W SeungWoo Choi 11-6 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:36 — UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · July 20, 2024
15/27Sig. strikes
9/15Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:37Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Melquizael Costa 20-6 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 1:01 — UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · December 9, 2023
29/49Sig. strikes
6/10Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:46Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 39-10 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 0:36 — UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · April 8, 2023
17/40Sig. strikes
18/35Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:15Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Chase Hooper 11-2-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:32 — UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · October 29, 2022
29/44Sig. strikes
10/30Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:17Control
3Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Maheshate 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:14 — UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · June 11, 2022
7/19Sig. strikes
7/10Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:35Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Charlie Ontiveros 0-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 1:51 — UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · October 9, 2021
34/49Sig. strikes
7/23Absorbed
3/5Takedowns
5:55Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Luis Pena 7-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · February 29, 2020
21/39Sig. strikes
27/42Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
0:13Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
19-6-0Pro record
Jackson WinkGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 15
Submission 0
Decision 4
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 1
Decision 3
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 10
Bellator 7
Jackson Wink Fight Night 3
Triple A MMA 2
LFA 1
Dana White's Contender Series 1
Full career — 24 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
W David Onama TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
November 1, 2025
UFC 1 3:34
W Calvin Kattar Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
July 12, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
W Kyle Nelson TKO (elbows and punches) UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
September 7, 2024
UFC 1 3:59
W Choi Seung-woo TKO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
July 20, 2024
UFC 1 1:36
W Melquizael Costa KO (elbows) UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutiérrez
December 9, 2023
UFC 2 1:01
W Shayilan Nuerdanbieke KO (body kick and punches) UFC 287
April 8, 2023
UFC 2 0:36
W Chase Hooper TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
October 29, 2022
UFC 1 1:32
L Maheshate Hayisaer KO (punch) UFC 275
June 11, 2022
UFC 1 1:14
W Charlie Ontiveros TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
October 8, 2021
UFC 2 1:51
L Luis Peña Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
February 29, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Jose Mariscal TKO (knee and elbows) LFA 80
January 17, 2020
LFA 2 2:27
W Desmond Torres TKO (punches and elbows) Dana White's Contender Series 25
August 20, 2019
Dana White's Contender Series 1 4:35
W Andrew Whitney TKO (punches) Jackson Wink Fight Night 5
May 10, 2019
Jackson Wink Fight Night 1 3:27
W Abel Cullum Decision (unanimous) Jackson Wink Fight Night 4
November 30, 2018
Jackson Wink Fight Night 3 5:00
L Aalon Cruz Submission (rear-naked choke) Jackson Wink Fight Night 3
June 2, 2018
Jackson Wink Fight Night 1 1:47
L Joe Warren Decision (unanimous) Bellator 181
July 14, 2017
Bellator 3 5:00
W Ronnie Lawrence Decision (unanimous) Bellator 162
October 21, 2016
Bellator 3 5:00
L Ricky Turcios Decision (split) Bellator 151
March 4, 2016
Bellator 3 5:00
W Eduardo Bustillos TKO (punches) Bellator 143
September 25, 2015
Bellator 1 4:59
W Kin Moy Decision (split) Bellator 123
September 5, 2014
Bellator 3 5:00
W Cody Walker KO (punch) Bellator 121
June 6, 2014
Bellator 1 0:39
W Klay Guy TKO (punches) Triple A MMA 4
January 16, 2014
Triple A MMA 2 1:14
W Shawn Bunch TKO (punches) Bellator 105
October 25, 2013
Bellator 3 3:29
W Alan Lerma TKO (punches) Triple A MMA 1
April 28, 2013
Triple A MMA 2 1:52

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Steve Garcia) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 134 qualified Featherweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 5.0 avg 3.6
Strikes absorbed /min 2.0 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 47.1% avg 45.0%
Striking defense 63.2% avg 55.3%
Takedowns /15 min 0.9 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 57.1% avg 37.4%
Takedown defense 80.0% avg 60.2%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.4 avg 0.6
Control time 15.2% avg 20.1%
Finish rate 87.5% avg 44.2%

Hero photo of Steve Garcia by The White House · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons