Matheus Nicolau

Picks Almabayev chiefly on Nicolau's durability/finish risk, openly wishing he could pick Nicolau instead, while conceding Nicolau may well be ahead on pure skill -- a conceded route addressed via a specific finish mechanism, not a full stay-away or hedging idiom.

Nicolau is rated a technically excellent, counter-heavy striker and a very good grappler -- strong takedowns, very good takedown defense, and excellent position-over-submission top control. The analyst says he was once sure Nicolau would be champion, but now doubts it entirely because of durability: Nicolau was stopped in his most recent bout under six months ago, and the analyst thinks he may be fighting again too soon. He believes Nicolau could be ahead on pure skill but loses on one chin-exposing moment.

Says he 'feels pretty confident,' that a rewatch 'confirmed my belief,' and sticks with Nicolau against what he calls the public's lean toward Perez.

Coming off a clean knockout loss to a former title challenger but otherwise 4-1 in his last five with no real string of bad performances. A technically sound counter-striker who picks his shots and moves well, which can mean lower volume but also means he avoids getting hit. The knockout raises a genuine, explicitly flagged durability question for the rest of his career, though his grappling - strong wrestling across the board (takedowns, takedown defense, top control), heavy on positional safety over hunting submissions - is a real asset. The analyst's standout pick on the entire card, confirmed on rewatch and taken against the public's lean toward his opponent.

a repeated, self-aware underdog pick built around getting plus-money value, not pure conviction; he also floats a hedge prop on the other side, which lowers it to lean rather than clear.

Won a previous close split-decision meeting with this opponent that the analyst believes was scored correctly, though many fans disagree and have cooled on him since a knockout loss to a former title challenger. A good, technically sound striker who picks his shots carefully and lands hard when he connects, helped by good lateral movement, though he too can be overly patient. The clearer edge is grappling: good takedowns, good takedown defense, excellent top control, and a position-over-submission approach. Picked as a contrarian, value-driven underdog built on that control path.

Lean. The win itself is hedged: he calls the matchup 'really tough', is openly torn because he enjoys Royval, and cedes Royval the volume, the length and the finish-hunting style. Nicolau's route is a single one, namely punishing a mistake he expects Royval to make. Choosing him is also tied to a title-contention hope for the year. Defensible alternative: clear.

A technical, shot-selective flyweight with the cleaner defence, who tends to land with economy rather than volume and who prefers to grind from top position. The analyst takes him because he expects him to cash in on an error from the more chaotic Royval.

says plainly he is not mega confident but states Nicolau as the pick without wavering on direction

A skilled but low-output flyweight he rates as the slightly better fighter in both grappling and striking, who prefers to work at range rather than force the pace. He thinks Schnell's size and reach will force Nicolau to raise his own output or take the fight to the mat to win.