Matt Schnell

He calls it "a trickier one to call" (5-word quote) and "hard to really say", naming Costa mainly on Schnell's durability concerns while granting Schnell the decision path.

A capable grappler, moving smoothly in scrambles and hunting submissions opportunistically, staying busy even from the bottom; getting there on his own terms is a different story, and his own defense once taken down is shaky. Standing, he brings crisp combination punching, sharp counters and a heavy output. The recurring theme is durability -- he has absorbed damage and been stopped enough times for it to be treated as the deciding issue in this matchup.

"I got to go Morales" -- a defensive-durability mechanism given plainly, with the feet called competitive, not a toss-up on the win itself

A good offensive striker -- good combinations, good counter striking and good volume -- but the analyst states directly and repeatedly that his durability is fading and his chin is no longer reliable, calling it a pattern seen too often lately to excuse. Grappling is graded good: really good scrambles, an opportunistic submission game and strong activity from his back, but he struggles to get his own takedowns and his takedown defense is not his best trait.

Commits to the underdog, invoking his rare 'dog' call, specifically because Schnell is a heavy favorite, but ties the win to a single conditional route -- a finish is unlikely, so the win has to come via a takedown -- after calling it close to even money.

Our paraphrase: a good offensive striker with good combos, counters and volume, returning from a brief retirement. The central problem the analyst identifies is durability: he says Schnell keeps losing by knockout and no longer has the chin he once did, which he suggests drove the retirement. Still has solid jiu-jitsu of his own (good scrambles, opportunistic subs, active from the back) but struggles to control where the fight takes place and his takedown defense is a real question mark.

Names Erceg as the pick twice, back to back, with a stated two-part mechanism: the more durable man, able to land long straights at a high rate, plus a slight jiu-jitsu edge if it reaches the mat. No hedge on the winner.

Praised as always an unpredictable, entertaining watch. A solid grappler who scrambles well and pounces on submissions when an opponent overcommits to a takedown or gets careless on the ground, staying busy from bottom position -- which matters, since his own takedown defense is shaky and he rarely puts a fight on the mat by his own doing. Striking-wise he combines well and times counters, but his chin has begun to crack under pressure (visibly hurt, wobbled), though heart and output keep him in it regardless.

says plainly he is not mega confident but states Nicolau as the pick without wavering on direction

The taller, longer fighter in the pair, who he expects to press forward and use his longer strikes to set a pace Nicolau has to answer. He calls Schnell's style a come-forward, scrappy one that tends to produce an early finish one way or the other.