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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
MarQuel Mederos
Lightweight

MarQuel Mederos

4-0-1
Sniper Accuracy Forward Pressure Relentless Attack Volume Machine Stuck On Bottom
5'10"Height
69"Reach
OrthodoxStance
29Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
25.0%Finish rate
13:25Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Strong, rated 88 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking solid · Aug 2026 · stats read 82 → nudged +2 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +1, striking volume +1, striking technique +3, kicking +2, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Strong, rated 91 of 100 · claims striking technique +3 (+6) Striking D — Weak, rated 18 of 100 · claims head movement +2, pressure resistance +2 (+5) Durability — Average, rated 55 of 100 · claims pressure resistance +2 (+2) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 33 of 100 · claims td offense +1, clinch +2 (+4) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · tag getup: poor (-10) · claims td defense -1, getup -2 (-5) Grappling — Below avg, rated 31 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Aug 2026 · stats read 19 → nudged -7 inside the band · claims sub defense -1 (-1) Control — Below avg, rated 25 of 100 · claims top control -1 (-4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking solid whiteboard
6 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs Rodrigues Full Card Preview & Predictions · August 17, 2026 · whiteboard watch ↗
  • solid UFC 327 Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 5, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 316 Full Card Breakdown · June 3, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 26, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Erceg Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 23, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Vegas 85) · January 26, 2024 watch ↗
grappling decent
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs Rodrigues Full Card Preview & Predictions · August 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 327 Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 5, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 316 Full Card Breakdown · June 3, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 26, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Vegas 85) · January 26, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking solid 6 reads · whiteboard
grappling decent 5 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Durability, Wrestling, TD Defense, Control.

Built on 67 minutes of tracked cage time across 5 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Sniper Accuracy 60% of significant strikes land
Forward Pressure 5.9 landed and 5.4 absorbed per minute — he turns fights into firefights
Relentless Attack 88 offensive actions per 15 min — strikes, takedown and submission attempts together
Volume Machine 5.9 significant strikes landed per minute
Stuck On Bottom 138 MMA · Apr 2026 tags getup: poor
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min5.94
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.41
Striking accuracy60.0%
Striking defense51.6%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.45
Takedowns / 15 min0.22
Takedown accuracy6.3%
Takedown defense75.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time11.3%
Record vs .500+ opponents1-0

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Mason Jones coinflip UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs Rodrigues Full Card Preview & Predictions · August 17, 2026
grapplingdecent strikingsolid

Says flatly it 'could go either way' and admits he's taking the big underdog here.

A technically clean, flashy striker with an awkward style that works well most of the time but occasionally makes him look silly in the moment. He has good combinations, fights out of either stance, feints well and moves his head, but his key tool here is his kick arsenal: a probing front kick and a calf kick meant to slow down pressure fighters. His grappling is only decent and mostly reactive, used to wear on opponents against the cage rather than as a primary weapon, and he is willing to give up his back to stand back up.

Strengthclean, awkward striking with good feints and head movement
Strengthfront kick and calf kick used to control range and slow pressure
Weaknessgrappling is limited to cage-adjacent wear-down, not offense
Weaknesswill surrender his back so he can return to standing
vs Chris Padilla clear UFC 327 Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 5, 2026 · 1 read since
strikingsolid grapplingdecent

repeats the pick twice, no hedge

Called an up-and-coming prospect with an awkward style that is hard for opponents to figure out. Dangerous on the feet from either stance, throws combinations, feints, has good head movement, and leans heavily on kicks (front kick, calf kick) to set up his offense. A decent grappler who wears opponents on the cage and gets takedowns there, but gives up his back to stand up quickly after being taken down, which is a real risk against an opportunistic finisher.

Strengthawkward, hard-to-read style
Strengthdangerous combinations, either stance
Strengthfeints, good head movement
Strengthfront kick and calf kick
Strengthcage pressure and takedowns off the cage
Weaknessgives up his back standing up after being taken down
getup · poor
vs Mark Choinski coinflip UFC 316 Full Card Breakdown · June 3, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

He favors Maderos on the striking but repeats, more than once, that the illness has him wanting no part of wagering on this outcome at all.

A good striker with good combinations, comfortable in either stance, who uses feints and an awkward rhythm to create offense; rated the far better striker in this matchup. His grappling is decent, with a good cage push that wears opponents down and the ability to mix in his own takedowns there, though his own takedown defense can be beaten by a strong established wrestler. The pick rests on his striking edge, clouded by an illness the week of the fight.

Strengthcombination striking
Strengthswitch-stance feints
Strengthawkward rhythm
Strengthcage-push grinding
Weaknesscan be taken down by a strong wrestler
vs Bolaji Oki lean UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 26, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

First-person and direct -- he says plainly he is going with 'the underdog' and names Mederos to get it done -- but adds in the same breath that he sees it as a 'close' fight. A committed pick with a named mechanism (the slightly sharper, more well-rounded striking; enough power to make Oki retreat) held below clear by his own closeness caveat.

MarQuel Mederos is a good striker the analyst rates as probably the slightly better of the two, fighting comfortably from either stance with feints, good combinations, and an awkward style he considers a net positive. He also credits Mederos with enough power to make Oki retreat. He is a decent grappler, not the best (he lost a lot of minutes to a past opponent), but his cage push wears opponents down before returning to striking range, and he can mix in takedowns when needed.

Strengthgood striker, fights either stance
Strengthfeints and good combinations
Strengthawkward style framed as a positive
Strengthenough power to make Oki back up
Strengthgood cage push that wears down opponents
Strengthcan mix in takedowns
Weaknessgrappling described as 'not the best'; lost a lot of minutes to a past opponent (Austin Hubbard)
ko power · good
vs Austin Hubbard lean UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Erceg Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 23, 2025 · 4 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood

winner named via internal naming inside a mistagged block: 'taking Maderos' -- the focus tag reads 'a' across segs 8-33, confirmed wrong by content match to Mederos's own board bullets and by seg15 naming Hubbard as the opponent of the block's subject.; a direct qualifier on the win itself: he is not sure Hubbard can't take the opening rounds, and notes several prospects have been upset this year -- more than a method/round hedge.

A prospect on a hot streak, down just a single pro loss. Switches stances fluidly, sets up shots behind sharp feints, and carries an awkward look that causes problems. His cage pressure and takedowns wear a man down over time, but he can surrender position on the mat or get swept -- a risk against a savvy veteran.

Strengtheither-stance striking
Strengthfeints
Strengthawkward style
Strengthcage-push takedowns, wears on opponents
Weaknessgives up position on the mat
Weaknesscan be swept
Weaknessgets overzealous on top
vs Landon Quinones coinflip UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Vegas 85) · January 26, 2024 · 5 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood

He names Quinones as his winner, then immediately admits he hasn't settled on how confident he is or whether it's a play worth making -- a hedge on conviction itself, not just price.

Mederos is a good striker who combines punches and kicks out of either stance, mixing in feints from an awkward, stance-switching style. He carries real power and backs it with a good cage-push grappling game, wearing opponents down against the fence until takedowns open up. Little is known about him beyond the regional scene and a Contender Series win.

Strengthgood striking, combinations out of either stance
Strengthfeints, awkward stance-switching style
Strengthpower (finish via knee)
Strengthgood cage-push grappling, wears opponents down

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 5 fights · green = win
February 3, 2024 vs Landon Quinones — 4.0/min (W) Feb '24 March 29, 2025 vs Austin Hubbard — 2.93/min (W) Mar '25 June 7, 2025 vs Mark Choinski — 7.33/min (W) Jun '25 April 11, 2026 vs Chris Padilla — 7.47/min (D) Apr '26 August 22, 2026 vs Mason Jones — 10.26/min (W) Aug '26

Fight history

5 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Mason Jones 18-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 2:07 — UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · August 22, 2026
73/106Sig. strikes
77/151Absorbed
0/4Takedowns
0:54Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
D Chris Padilla 4-0 walk-in Decision - Majority · R3 5:00 — UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · April 11, 2026
112/180Sig. strikes
147/271Absorbed
1/6Takedowns
0:16Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Mark Choinski 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · June 7, 2025
110/165Sig. strikes
58/114Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:38Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Austin Hubbard 16-8 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · March 29, 2025
44/68Sig. strikes
26/65Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
1:33Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Landon Quinones 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · February 3, 2024
60/146Sig. strikes
55/149Absorbed
0/5Takedowns
4:13Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
4-0-1UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 3
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Draws: 1

Fights by organization

UFC 5

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 5.9 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 5.4 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 60.0% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 51.6% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 0.2 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 6.3% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 75.0% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 11.3% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 25.0% avg 50.7%

Headshot of MarQuel Mederos by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized