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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Josh Quinlan
Welterweight · “Bushido”

Josh Quinlan

1-3-0
Hard To Take Down Striker Suspect TD Defense
6'0"Height
72"Reach
OrthodoxStance
33Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
10:51Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 50 of 100 · claims striking power +3, kicking +2, pressure +1 (+8) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 28 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking D — Weak, rated 8 of 100 · claims striking defense -1 (-3) Durability — Weak, rated 24 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 47 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Apr 2023 · stats read 28 → nudged -10 inside the band TD Defense — Average, rated 50 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Jun 2024 · stats read 62 → nudged +10 inside the band · tag getup: good (+4) · claims td defense -1, getup +3 (+2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Jun 2024 · stats read 19 → nudged -7 inside the band · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Weak, rated 10 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking not yet read
grappling decent
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Perez vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 93) · June 11, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Song vs Simon Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 72 · April 25, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking not yet read
grappling decent 1 read
wrestling good 1 read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Wrestling, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Striking, Striking D · stats alone on Accuracy, Durability, Control.

Built on 43 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Hard To Take Down average td defense — rates 50 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Jun 2024
Striker average striking — rates 50 of 100 · claims striking power +3, kicking +2, pressure +1 (+8)
Suspect TD Defense 138 MMA · Jun 2024 tags td defense: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.34
Sig. strikes absorbed / min6.44
Striking accuracy40.7%
Striking defense53.7%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.35
Takedowns / 15 min0.35
Takedown accuracy11.1%
Takedown defense66.7%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time2.1%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-0

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Adam Fugitt coinflip UFC Fight Night Perez vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 93) · June 11, 2024
grapplingdecent wrestlinggood

He states plainly that he holds zero confidence in this specific pick and that the fight could break either direction, immediately after naming Fugitt -- an explicit, stated low-confidence pick, recorded faithfully rather than upgraded.

A rule-2b conduct aside about this fighter's past record sits at the start of this chapter's transcript; excluded entirely per rule 2b -- existence only, nothing about its substance recorded here or anywhere else in this bout. Our words on the rest: a powerful, blitz-heavy striker who works from range before blitzing in and getting back out, with an especially heavy leg kick. Decent grappling with shaky takedown defense, offset by good sweeps and a quick return to his feet.

Strengthpowerful, blitz-heavy striking
Strengthheavy leg kick
Strengthgood sweeps off his back
Strengthquick to return to his feet after being taken down
Weaknesstakedown defense isn't the best
td defense · suspect
vs Danny Barlow clear UFC 298 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · February 13, 2024 · 1 read since
wrestlinggood

A specific mechanism is given and repeated (the long-reach southpaw cross catching Quinlan's blitzing entries) with only a mild 'probably' qualifier on the finish, and no hedge toward the alternative winner.

Quinlan is a powerful, blitzing striker with heavy leg kicks, and by the analyst's own assessment the better grappler of the two, with good sweeps off the back. His own takedown defense is also described as poor, which cuts both ways in this matchup. His last outing on the regional scene, a win, was later overturned to a no-contest following a failed drug test.

Strengthpowerful, blitzing striking style
Strengthheavy leg kicks
Strengthgood sweeps off his back
Strengththe better grappler of the two, by this analyst's read
Weaknessa shaky takedown defense problem of his own
Weaknessblitzing entries can be timed and caught by a counter puncher
td defense · suspect
vs Trey Waters coinflip UFC Fight Night Song vs Simon Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 72 · April 25, 2023 · 2 reads since
wrestlinggood

He names Quinlan twice but calls it himself 'a very low confidence pick' and frames the real wager as the knockout/method prop rather than the winner -- a direct statement of low conviction in the stated side.

A powerful, blitzing striker who comes in behind big shots, resets, and comes again, with heavy leg kicks against a tall, thinner opponent. His wrestling and jiu-jitsu are rated good offensively but he rarely uses them, preferring to finish on the feet; his takedown defense is called the weaker side of that game. He works back to his feet off the bottom and has good sweeps if taken down. He is coming off a normal camp rather than short notice.

Strengthpowerful, blitzing striker
Strengthheavy leg kicks
Strengthgood wrestling/BJJ offensively
Strengthworks to get back up
Strengthgood sweeps off the bottom
Strengthhas a normal camp (opponent is on short notice, he is not)
Weaknesstakedown defense weaker than his offensive wrestling
td defense · suspectgetup · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
August 13, 2022 vs Jason Witt — 1.4/min (W) — only 2.1 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '22 April 29, 2023 vs Trey Waters — 3.33/min (L) Apr '23 February 17, 2024 vs Danny Barlow — 3.45/min (L) Feb '24 June 15, 2024 vs Adam Fugitt — 3.53/min (L) Jun '24

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Adam Fugitt 9-4 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · June 15, 2024
53/126Sig. strikes
80/205Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Danny Barlow 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 1:18 — UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · February 17, 2024
39/90Sig. strikes
95/185Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Trey Waters 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · April 29, 2023
50/128Sig. strikes
104/203Absorbed
1/8Takedowns
0:54Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Jason Witt 19-8 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:09 — UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · August 13, 2022
3/12Sig. strikes
1/12Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-3-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 2
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 4

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 189 qualified Welterweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.3 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 6.4 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 40.7% avg 45.1%
Striking defense 53.7% avg 55.2%
Takedowns /15 min 0.3 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 11.1% avg 40.2%
Takedown defense 66.7% avg 62.6%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 2.1% avg 21.5%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 53.9%

Headshot of Josh Quinlan by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized