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Francis Marshall
Featherweight · “Fire”

Francis Marshall

4-4-0
Takedown-Proof Positional Grappler Hittable Padded Record
5'9"Height
72"Reach
OrthodoxStance
27Age
1KO wins
1Sub wins
50.0%Finish rate
11:03Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 49 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Oct 2026 · stats read 14 → nudged -11 inside the band · tag counter striking: good (+1) · claims striking power +1, striking volume +2, striking technique -2, pressure +2 (+2) Accuracy — Weak, rated 3 of 100 · claims striking technique -2, counter striking +2 (-2) Striking D — Below avg, rated 36 of 100 · 138 MMA tag striking defense: suspect · Oct 2026 · stats read 55 → nudged +7 inside the band · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Oct 2026 · stats read 66 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims chin +2 (+4) Wrestling — Average, rated 64 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Mar 2025 · stats read 65 → nudged +3 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 77 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 94 · claims getup +1 (+2) Grappling — Average, rated 58 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Oct 2026 · stats read 60 → nudged +1 inside the band Control — Above avg, rated 77 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
7 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good None · October 21, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 22, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Albazi vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 27, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 313 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 3, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Blaydes Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 71 · April 18, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good None · October 21, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 22, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Albazi vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 27, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling good
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 313 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 3, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Blaydes Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 71 · April 18, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction · November 29, 2022 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 7 reads
grappling good 3 reads
wrestling good 5 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Striking D, Durability, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, TD Defense, Control.

Built on 88 minutes of tracked cage time across 8 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Takedown-Proof 11 of 12 takedowns stuffed
Positional Grappler above avg control — rates 77 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4)
Hittable 138 MMA · Oct 2026 tags striking defense: suspect
Padded Record 138 MMA · Nov 2022 tags competition quality: padded
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min2.23
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.11
Striking accuracy30.4%
Striking defense54.8%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.34
Takedowns / 15 min1.86
Takedown accuracy37.9%
Takedown defense91.7%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.51
Control time28.2%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-2

Insider info

8 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Dakota Hope coinflip None · October 21, 2026
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

He only leans this way, says the result depends on which style Marshall chooses, admits he could lose if he chases a brawl, and attaches explicit advice to avoid the fight.

A pressuring, busy striker with a grappling edge he expects to hold, whose habit of firing back through exchanges makes him both dangerous and hittable.

Strengthwalks forward with steady pressure and keeps output flowing
Strengthcuts into opponents' combinations rather than waiting them out, breaking up boxing sequences
Strengthenough pop to hurt an opponent who gives him openings
Strengthholds the likely grappling advantage, with a reliable double leg
Strengthscrambles very well in transitions
Strengthworkable top position once he gets there
Weaknessdefensive striking is a weak point, partly because he accepts a shot in order to answer mid-combination
Weaknesscould be drawn into a firefight on the opponent's terms, which is his path to losing
ko power · decentchin · durablecounter striking · goodstriking defense · suspect
vs Erik Silva clear UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 22, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

States 'I'm taking Francis Marshall' with a stated mechanism (better striker, grappling good enough to stay standing); no hedge on the win itself, though he grants Silva 'a chance' to stay on top if takedowns land.

A good, if unpolished, striker who wins with forward pressure, volume, and by interrupting opponents' combinations with power counters mid-combo. Durable enough to accept this trade-off, though his own striking defense is a real hole. A strong double-leg entry, decent control on top, and effective scrambling round out a well-rounded grappling game.

Strengthforward pressure
Strengthvolume striking
Strengthinterrupts opponent combinations with power shots
Strengthdurable
Strengthgood double leg takedown
Strengthgood scrambles
Weaknessstriking defense lacking - explicitly flagged twice as a problem
chin · durable
vs Austin Bashi clear UFC Fight Night Albazi vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 27, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

reaffirms the pick twice after addressing viewer pushback about fraud claims, insisting he genuinely believes in Bashi, backed by a grappling-positions edge.

Now considered a capable striker, by his own account a real change from where he used to be, thanks to steady forward pressure, real volume and fair power; his signature trait is walking directly through an opponent's punches to keep advancing rather than retreating. His own defense on the feet is lacking, but enough toughness lets him absorb that and keep pushing. On the mat he also grades out well, pairing a strong double-leg takedown with so-so (his word, not great) hip control and nice scrambling ability.

Strengthsteady pressure and volume, fair power
Strengthwalks through punches to keep advancing
Strengthtough enough to absorb a weak striking defense
Strengthstrong double-leg takedown, fair hip control, nice scrambling
Weaknessstriking defense not good
vs Mairon Santos lean UFC 313 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 3, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

He names Santos plainly, but spends nearly equal time laying out a genuine, unrebutted upset route for Marshall (repeated cage pressure wearing on Santos's one real takedown-defense gap), and directly warns viewers to be careful backing the big favorite -- a conceded opposing path plus betting caution together cap this below clear.

138 says Marshall's best path is wrestling: a strong double-leg entry, a passable top game, and good scrambling ability, aided by more UFC experience than Santos. His striking is only decent -- forward-pressing with fair volume and some pop -- but he is unpolished with a weak striking defense. He is durable enough to walk through shots, though 138 notes that alone does not win rounds on the cards.

Strengthsolid double leg and good scrambling
Strengthexperience edge
Strengthdurable, can walk through shots
Weaknessunpolished striking with weak striking defense
Weaknesscannot win rounds on durability alone
ko power · decentchin · durable
vs Dennis Buzukja lean UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 · 4 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

He picks Marshall ('we're GNA take' him) but hedges repeatedly: short notice is a 'big red flag', he concedes Marshall is likely 'getting... pieced up early on', and the comeback is conditioned on him not gassing out -- several qualifiers stacked on the win itself, not just on method or margin.

A short-notice fighter with less than a week to prepare, he is a good wrestler built around a solid double leg and decent top control, with striking the analyst calls merely decent -- incredibly unpolished and with no real striking defense -- but he is durable enough to absorb shots while pressing forward with power and volume. The pick leans on that durability and style edge in the striking exchanges, while openly flagging the short-notice circumstance as a real risk.

Strengthgood wrestling: solid double leg, decent top control
Strengthdurable -- can absorb shots while pressing forward
Strengthpower and volume in an unpolished but effective striking style
Weaknessstriking defense essentially absent
Weaknessunpolished striking technique
Weaknessshort notice -- limited camp time
chin · durable
vs Isaac Dulgarian coinflip UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 · 5 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

States directly that he lacks real confidence here since so little tape exists on Dulgarian; frames the pick as deliberately backing the unknown quantity rather than a skill-based read.

A strong wrestler with a good single-leg entry and good scrambles who looks to finish fights quickly, usually by submission; on the feet the analyst credits him with good power and volume by default, since so little is known about Dulgarian's own striking, but his own striking defense is called pretty bad -- offset by a real chin.

Strengthgood wrestling, good double-leg entry
Strengthgood scrambles, used to advance position
Strengthgood power and volume on the feet
Strengthdurable -- keeps coming after being hit
Weaknessstriking defense is pretty bad
chin · durable
vs William Gomis coinflip UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Blaydes Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 71 · April 18, 2023 · 6 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

He names Marshal as his man, then twice denies having any real conviction in that choice, after describing a late back-and-forth switch between the two men. The root-beer idiom appears on its own (no explicit stay-off-the-fight line), which caps conviction further; combined with the double denial of confidence and a called-close three-round decision, this lands at coinflip rather than lean.

Decent striking that trades polish for volume and power, backed by good wrestling built around a favorite double-leg entry and a durable chin. His height/reach disadvantage against Gomis is real but he is expected to be the one closing distance and forcing the fight.

Strengthvolume and power compensate for lack of polish
Strengthbeautiful double-leg entry
Strengthdurable
Weaknessnot the best striking defense
Weaknessheight/reach disadvantage (5'9" / 72" vs 6'0" / 73")
chin · durable
vs Marcelo Rojo coinflip UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction · November 29, 2022 · 7 reads since
wrestlinggood

calls it full of unknowns, says he cannot bring himself to bet it, and never firmly commits beyond 'probably'

An undefeated young prospect he is reluctant to rate highly because the level of opposition has been weak. He credits real wrestling and punching power, and a willingness to absorb punishment, but says there just is not enough tape against good competition to know how good he really is.

Strengthgood wrestling
Strengthreal power in his hands
Weaknessvery little proof against good competition
competition quality · padded

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
December 3, 2022 vs Marcelo Rojo — 3.69/min (W) Dec '22 April 22, 2023 vs William Gomis — 1.0/min (L) Apr '23 August 12, 2023 vs Isaac Dulgarian — 0.42/min (L) — only 4.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '23 August 24, 2024 vs Dennis Buzukja — 3.8/min (W) Aug '24 March 8, 2025 vs Mairon Santos — 2.6/min (L) Mar '25 February 28, 2026 vs Erik Silva — 1.21/min (W) — only 2.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '26 April 25, 2026 vs Lucas Brennan — 2.2/min (W) Apr '26 October 31, 2026 vs Dakota Hope — 1.67/min (L) Oct '26

Fight history

8 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Dakota Hope 0-1 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · October 31, 2026
25/61Sig. strikes
44/111Absorbed
1/5Takedowns
1:34Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Lucas Brennan 11-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
33/69Sig. strikes
9/36Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
6:36Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Erik Silva 0-2 walk-in Submission · R1 2:29 — UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · February 28, 2026
3/5Sig. strikes
5/9Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
1:42Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Mairon Santos 1-0 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · March 8, 2025
39/143Sig. strikes
58/129Absorbed
3/5Takedowns
2:35Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Dennis Buzukja 1-2 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · August 24, 2024
57/150Sig. strikes
66/145Absorbed
1/6Takedowns
5:26Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Isaac Dulgarian 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:48 — UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · August 12, 2023
2/7Sig. strikes
35/53Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L William Gomis 1-0 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · April 22, 2023
15/132Sig. strikes
27/79Absorbed
2/5Takedowns
4:20Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Marcelo Rojo 0-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 1:14 — UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · December 3, 2022
23/81Sig. strikes
31/47Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
2:47Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
4-4-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 1
Decision 2
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 3
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 8

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 134 qualified Featherweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 2.2 avg 3.6
Strikes absorbed /min 3.1 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 30.4% avg 45.0%
Striking defense 54.8% avg 55.3%
Takedowns /15 min 1.9 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 37.9% avg 37.4%
Takedown defense 91.7% avg 60.2%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.5 avg 0.6
Control time 28.2% avg 20.1%
Finish rate 50.0% avg 44.2%

Headshot of Francis Marshall by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized