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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Francis Marshall vs. Erik Silva

UFC 4-4-0 vs. 0-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-4-0
UFC record
0-3-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
27
AgeΔ 12 yrs
39
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox2-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox0-2 vs orthodox fighters
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 8 mo
8.2
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Erik Silva hunts takedowns — 2.66 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Francis Marshall owns the mat — in control 28% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Francis Marshall hunts takedowns — 1.86 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Francis Marshall

Full career not yet synced for Francis Marshall — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Erik Silva

Full career not yet synced for Erik Silva — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1972.23/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
261.54/min · norm 3.52
2753.11/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
281.66/min · norm 3.54
30.4%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
66.7%norm 44.8%
54.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
37.8%norm 54.8%
20.34/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Francis Marshall

Distance 95.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.3% (norm 6.4%)

Erik Silva

Distance 76.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 17.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 5.1% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Francis Marshall

Head 92.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 3.4% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 7.9%)

Erik Silva

Head 64.1% (norm 77.5%) · Body 20.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 15.4% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Marshall L/AAccFeatherweight med Silva L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 177 / 619 28.6% 40.7% 18 / 30 60.0% 40.7%
In the clinch 10 / 14 too few to rate 70.5% 7 / 7 too few to rate 70.5%
On the ground 10 / 15 too few to rate 69.1% 1 / 2 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 155 / 596 26.0% 37.2% 14 / 25 56.0% 37.2%
To the body 12 / 22 too few to rate 68.4% 7 / 8 too few to rate 68.4%
To the legs 30 / 30 100.0% 80.7% 5 / 6 too few to rate 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Marshall L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Silva L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 220 / 527 41.7% 39.3% 17 / 32 53.1% 39.3%
In the clinch 12 / 20 too few to rate 70.3% 6 / 7 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 43 / 62 69.4% 69.5% 5 / 6 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 169 / 439 38.5% 35.9% 21 / 37 56.8% 35.9%
To the body 50 / 101 49.5% 68.1% 4 / 5 too few to rate 68.1%
To the legs 56 / 69 81.2% 81.1% 3 / 3 too few to rate 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1137.9% acc · 1.86/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
375.0% acc · 2.66/15 · norm 1.17
1191.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
660.0% def · norm 61.5%
25:0028.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
2:4816.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
10:131:43 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
11:3610:17 per 15 · norm 3:11
30.51/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Marshall has more cage time on record.