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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Francis Marshall vs. Marcelo Rojo

UFC 4-4-0 vs. 0-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-4-0
UFC record
0-3-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
27
AgeΔ 11 yrs
38
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox2-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox0-2 vs orthodox fighters
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 46.9 mo
47.1
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Marcelo Rojo absorbs 6.42 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Francis Marshall owns the mat — in control 28% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Marcelo Rojo rarely shoots — 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Francis Marshall

Full career not yet synced for Francis Marshall — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Marcelo Rojo

Full career not yet synced for Marcelo Rojo — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1972.23/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1604.92/min · norm 3.52
2753.11/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2096.42/min · norm 3.54
30.4%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
39.6%norm 44.8%
54.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
55.1%norm 54.8%
20.34/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Francis Marshall

Distance 95.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.3% (norm 6.4%)

Marcelo Rojo

Distance 92.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 1.5% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Francis Marshall

Head 92.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 3.4% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 7.9%)

Marcelo Rojo

Head 75.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 10.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Marshall L/AAccFeatherweight med Rojo L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 177 / 619 28.6% 40.7% 140 / 373 37.5% 40.7%
In the clinch 10 / 14 too few to rate 70.5% 15 / 25 60.0% 70.5%
On the ground 10 / 15 too few to rate 69.1% 5 / 6 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 155 / 596 26.0% 37.2% 77 / 304 25.3% 37.2%
To the body 12 / 22 too few to rate 68.4% 31 / 44 70.5% 68.4%
To the legs 30 / 30 100.0% 80.7% 52 / 56 92.9% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Marshall L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Rojo L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 220 / 527 41.7% 39.3% 151 / 381 39.6% 39.3%
In the clinch 12 / 20 too few to rate 70.3% 24 / 29 82.8% 70.3%
On the ground 43 / 62 69.4% 69.5% 34 / 55 61.8% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 169 / 439 38.5% 35.9% 140 / 380 36.8% 35.9%
To the body 50 / 101 49.5% 68.1% 37 / 52 71.2% 68.1%
To the legs 56 / 69 81.2% 81.1% 32 / 33 97.0% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1137.9% acc · 1.86/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
150.0% acc · 0.46/15 · norm 1.17
1191.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
866.7% def · norm 61.5%
25:0028.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
0:583.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
10:131:43 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
8:173:49 per 15 · norm 3:11
30.51/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Marshall has more cage time on record.