Diana Belbita

He calls the matchup "very cut and dry" and commits firmly to a Barbosa submission finish, with no hedge on the outcome itself.

A fighter he says absorbs a lot of punishment because her ability to avoid strikes is weak, yet her own offensive numbers are fairly strong -- a busy pace, a serviceable jab -- even though she doesn't have the power to truly hurt people and can generally weather a shot. Her Jiu-Jitsu is fair, staying busy off bottom with an armbar of her own, but he notes opponents can pin her down and that her ability to escape a submission has repeatedly failed her over the years.

He commits to Belbita with a full mechanism (reach, jab, avoiding the clinch) built from a deliberate rewatch of their first fight, but explicitly calls this one of his weaker picks on the card and notes the heavy underdog price -- a hedge on the pick itself, not only on price.

Belbita is a good, very-high-volume forward-pressure striker with a solid jab who the analyst calls very durable -- she absorbed heavy shots from McCann in their first meeting without being visibly bothered, and her own lighter volume actually gave McCann more trouble. Her striking defense isn't the best. On the mat she has decent BJJ and is very active off her back with a good armbar, though an opponent can pin her down, and her ability to defend submissions once caught has been shaky before.

Picks Belbita outright on a stated mechanism -- her youth/height/reach edge lets her land first despite Kowalkiewicz being called the technically superior fighter -- with no hedge on the win itself, only an acknowledgment that most viewers will disagree.

Ten years younger, noticeably taller, with a longer reach -- physical advantages he leans on heavily for the pick. A good, high-output striker who presses forward relentlessly, though her striking defense is weak. On the ground she stays active working from her back with decent jiu-jitsu, but can be held down and her submission defense isn't her best; offense-heavy with little defense on either side of the fight. Picked as the side he expects most viewers to disagree with.

Names Belbita's volume as the deciding edge over Oliveira's blitz, then adds explicitly he has no money on it -- a stated mechanism paired with an explicit no-bet hedge, not a firm call.

Diana Belbita is read as a high-volume pressure striker who overwhelms with constant one-twos and hooks rather than one-shot power. Her forward pace is paired with a real striking-defense hole -- she gets hit coming through -- but the analyst still favors her volume over Oliveira's blitz-and-counter approach. She also has serviceable BJJ offense from her back, though her own submission defense and takedown defense are both unremarkable.