Davey Grant

He says he nearly picked the other side, justifies the pick mainly by the opponent's fallback options, and closes by saying an upset would not surprise him at all.

A savvy veteran striker with power, kicks and a dangerous submission game off his back, but one who can be pinned down by a strong wrestler.

'veteran savvy' commitment, undercut by conceding scorecards sometimes don't go his way

Awkward, switch-stance veteran striker who mixes combinations and leg kicks and is very hard to read because he fights comfortably from either side. Durable on the feet. His grappling is more defensive than offensive: decent at stopping takedowns but struggles to return to his feet once flattened, though he stays active off his back with real submission threats.

Names Grant, then: 'could easily go either way', 'around the same level' -- a hedge on the win itself right after the pick sentence, the classic clear-to-lean shape.

A good striker with deceptive power for the weight, good leg kick, volume and combinations who fights comfortably from either stance. Decent takedown defense, active off his back with a real submission arsenal, though he is more hittable once an opponent manages to flatten him out. The analyst expects a striking match and favors him there on power and trickiness.

the pick is framed as contingent on where the fight takes place - a real shot for Grant if it stays standing, an edge for Blackshear only once the fight reaches the mat

A tough, well-conditioned striker who dominates the boxing range at a steep rate: strong hands, a strong low kick, heavy output, comfort switching stances, and crisp combination punching coming forward. On the mat he is a sound grappler, busy off his back with a strong submission game, but he can get pinned down once flattened out.

He picks Grant off the strength of his prior outing, while openly calling Santos dangerous in this matchup and framing the pick itself as taking the underdog in a close fight.

A fair striker who presses forward with heavy output and real power. He singles out an uptick in Grant's defensive head motion during his previous bout as a key sign, significant because that fight came after a layoff the analyst had worried about beforehand -- a worry he says turned out to be unfounded. On the ground he has strong scrambling ability and a capable submission game of his own. He leans toward Grant based on how sharp he looked that last time out, reading the sharper head movement as proof the time away, if anything, left him better off rather than worse.

Commits to Taveras twice, specifically citing Grant's age and long layoff as the deciding factor, then adds that a Grant win over him here would not be shocking -- a real conceded path left unrebutted.

Good striker with power, volume, durability and a strong leg kick who fights well from either stance and puts together clean combinations; also a good grappler with great scrambles and a surprising submission arsenal. The deciding issue this video is NOT his skill -- it is that he is returning from a long layoff at almost 39, which creates real uncertainty about how he looks tonight.

Calls it a genuinely tough fight to pick, then says he will 'slightly lean' Marcos's way -- explicit lean-tier language, with no stay-away or bet instruction given.

Grant is a good, well-rounded striker (power, volume, either stance, solid leg kick) and craftier grappler with a diverse submission arsenal, generally considered the better ground game of the two. The analyst's stated concern is age (37) and an anticipated decline that 'hasn't really shown' yet but is expected 'at some point very soon'.

Stated twice as a lean ("I'm gonna lean Davey Grant" / "leaning Grant here"), paired with real outcome doubt rather than just betting caution -- the analyst says he does not know whether Assuncao's last performance was a drop-off or a blip, and that uncertainty is what keeps him off the bet.

A solid striker with real power, good volume, and leg kicks with steam on them. He is very durable -- able to absorb a shot at 37 and fire back -- and has decent, if secondary, grappling with some submission wins. The analyst expects him to be the more consistent damage-dealer over the course of the fight.