Cody Stamann

Picks Blackshear by name on his height/reach edge, but explicitly tells viewers to pass on this one ('one of those landmines'), picking him seemingly just to have a pick rather than from conviction, and concedes Stamann could win if his volume and takedowns return -- a named winner plus an explicit stay-away instruction, capped at coinflip.

A well-rounded veteran who has faced the best in his division; solid wrestling with good takedowns and top control, and a good, tight boxing-based striking game. His own analyst-noted limits are short reach ('T-Rex arms') and a recent drop in his striking volume and takedown attempts, which the analyst cites as the specific reason he's a big underdog here despite being skilled.

He opens by calling this his hardest pick of the card and says he struggled with it, then commits to Lapilus twice in his own words with a real mechanism (Stamann abandoning wrestling for boxing, cardio/grip concerns). The double, unhedged commitment at the close argues for clear; the explicit struggle disclosed up front is the reason I graded it lean instead, recording clear as the defensible alternate.

A 2-3 (last five) wrestle-boxer who the analyst says has drifted away from his wrestling in favor of standing and trading, which he frames as the deciding risk of the fight. Solid wrestling with good takedowns and top control when he uses it; good, tight boxing with basic combinations when he does not.

Opens by admitting he has not settled on a pick yet and talks himself into de Andrade on air; after picking him, concedes an unrebutted route for Stamann (controlling top position) and immediately adds he might switch -- a stated pick with real, acknowledged indecision.

A solid wrestler whose takedown volume is his most important weapon, backed by good cardio and good top control; the analyst expects him to keep shooting takedowns repeatedly because de Andrade gets back up. His three recent losses came against high-level competition, which the analyst says makes a 2-3 last-five record look worse than it is. On the feet his boxing has visibly improved over his last few fights, including a knockout, with volume as his best striking trait.

Same chapter, same grade. Unqualified support for the pick: the 'wrestling is there all day'; Stamann getting on top, using the takedown and 'top pressure' to 'grind a few out'; Stamann as 'the overall better fighter'; closing on the label 'a pretty clear pitch' (garbled 'pick'). Held off emphatic because he leaves two routes open for Lacerda at the end -- if Lacerda 'decides to stand and trade' it 'could go either way', and the conceded early-rush finish, in which Lacerda fails to put Stamann away on 'that big rush forward'. The standing concession is rebutted with a mechanism (volume takedowns against a man whose forward charge leaves no takedown defence), which is why it does not pull the grade down to lean. The odds remarks -- Lacerda as 'a great play big Underdog' (the view he abandons) and the refusal to back him 'at those odds' while still taking Stamann (a wager judgement held apart from the pick) -- are bare remarks about a number, not price-as-premise. Feeling 'pretty good about picking' Stamann qualifies his own comfort, not the win. GRADE RESOLUTION, 2026-10-06: this bout was first graded clear and was demoted to lean after an independent second read by an author who had not seen the first pass. The pick sentence hedges the win itself -- he says he is 'leaning' (the captions render that as 'leaving') and that he feels 'pretty good' about the pick, both attached to the pick rather than to method or margin -- and the later self-label is softened twice, by 'should be' and by 'pretty'. The opponent's early-finish route is conceded and never answered, because nothing is said about this man's durability. The argument for clear is left standing above so the call can be re-argued, but the stored grade is lean. The asymmetry matters: clear carries 0.20 in the blend against lean's 0.05.

Two wins and three defeats across his last five, which the analyst declines to read as decline: all five career losses have come against the upper end of the division, and he answered with a clean knockout of a recognised veteran in his most recent outing. He is the smaller man by an inch of height and more than eight inches of reach, so the boxing is a close-quarters job -- and it has visibly come on, with compact punching, respectable output and enough power to put an opponent to sleep. The case for him is the wrestling. He shoots takedowns in volume, one after another until one lands, and against a man who crashes forward behind big shots the analyst expects that to be there all night, with top pressure to grind rounds out once it is. The caveat he names himself is that choosing to trade on the feet would even the fight up.