Skip to content
UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Tom Nolan vs. Renato Moicano

UFC 6-1-0 vs. 13-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-1-0
UFC record
13-8-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
26
AgeΔ 11 yrs
37
6'3"
HeightΔ 4"
5'11"
73"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Southpaw6-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox3-4 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
0.1
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Tom Nolan is a submission threat — 1.15 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Tom Nolan outworks the Lightweight division — 4.95 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.
Renato Moicano hunts takedowns — 1.80 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Tom Nolan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 61
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.73 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 12 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3244.95/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
7803.91/min · norm 3.43
2143.27/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
7373.69/min · norm 3.37
49.5%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
49.4%norm 43.7%
47.8%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
57.9%norm 56.3%
10.23/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
20.15/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Tom Nolan

Distance 78.3% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 10.6% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.2% (norm 8.0%)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Tom Nolan

Head 67.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 22.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 8.0%)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nolan L/AAccLightweight med Moicano L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 225 / 512 43.9% 38.4% 645 / 1391 46.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 45 / 69 65.2% 67.5% 25 / 33 75.8% 67.5%
On the ground 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1% 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 184 / 444 41.4% 35.3% 566 / 1301 43.5% 35.3%
To the body 91 / 144 63.2% 69.2% 80 / 120 66.7% 69.2%
To the legs 49 / 66 74.2% 81.8% 134 / 158 84.8% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nolan L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 172 / 339 50.7% 38.9% 584 / 1547 37.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 21 / 36 58.3% 68.6% 30 / 39 76.9% 68.6%
On the ground 21 / 35 60.0% 68.2% 123 / 163 75.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 96 / 262 36.6% 35.2% 475 / 1409 33.7% 35.2%
To the body 65 / 93 69.9% 68.2% 133 / 187 71.1% 68.2%
To the legs 53 / 55 96.4% 81.5% 129 / 153 84.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
531.3% acc · 1.15/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2442.1% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.34
952.9% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2762.8% def · norm 63.2%
10:5616.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
48:2824.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
21:064:49 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
25:521:56 per 15 · norm 2:50
51.15/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
80.60/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moicano has more cage time on record.