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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis

UFC 13-8-0 vs. 9-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-8-0
UFC record
9-4-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 7 yrs
30
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
73"
Orthodox3-4 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw5-3 vs orthodox fighters
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 3.6 mo
3.8
LWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Benoit Saint Denis carries real power — 0.86 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Benoit Saint Denis is a submission threat — 1.73 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Renato Moicano hunts takedowns — 1.80 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Benoit Saint Denis

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 94
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.53 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7803.91/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
4845.58/min · norm 3.43
7373.69/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3554.09/min · norm 3.37
49.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
58.5%norm 43.7%
57.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
42.0%norm 56.3%
20.15/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
50.86/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 8.0%)

Benoit Saint Denis

Distance 59.2% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 12.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 28.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

Benoit Saint Denis

Head 74.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 19.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.5% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Moicano L/AAccLightweight med Denis L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 645 / 1391 46.4% 38.4% 245 / 490 50.0% 38.4%
In the clinch 25 / 33 75.8% 67.5% 87 / 105 82.9% 67.5%
On the ground 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1% 152 / 233 65.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 566 / 1301 43.5% 35.3% 304 / 614 49.5% 35.3%
To the body 80 / 120 66.7% 69.2% 128 / 160 80.0% 69.2%
To the legs 134 / 158 84.8% 81.8% 52 / 54 96.3% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Denis L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 584 / 1547 37.8% 38.9% 259 / 489 53.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 30 / 39 76.9% 68.6% 55 / 79 69.6% 68.6%
On the ground 123 / 163 75.5% 68.2% 41 / 44 93.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 475 / 1409 33.7% 35.2% 241 / 479 50.3% 35.2%
To the body 133 / 187 71.1% 68.2% 78 / 94 83.0% 68.2%
To the legs 129 / 153 84.3% 81.5% 36 / 39 92.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2442.1% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2435.3% acc · 4.15/15 · norm 1.34
2762.8% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1372.2% def · norm 63.2%
48:2824.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
40:5847.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
25:521:56 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
10:191:46 per 15 · norm 2:50
80.60/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
101.73/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moicano has more cage time on record.