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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Nad Narimani vs. Grant Dawson

UFC 2-2-0 vs. 13-2-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-2-0
UFC record
13-2-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
39
AgeΔ 7 yrs
32
5'8"
HeightΔ 2"
5'10"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch11-1 vs orthodox fighters
75.6
Layoff (months)Δ 75.2 mo
0.4
LLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Grant Dawson has owned orthodox fighters — 11-1 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and Nad Narimani is orthodox.
Grant Dawson owns the mat — in control 63% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Grant Dawson hunts takedowns — 3.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Nad Narimani

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 22
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 42
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 16 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Grant Dawson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 132
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.65 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1823.33/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
6233.37/min · norm 3.43
1643.00/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4392.38/min · norm 3.37
42.7%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
51.1%norm 43.7%
58.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
44.0%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Nad Narimani

Distance 81.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 13.4% (norm 6.4%)

Grant Dawson

Distance 67.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 26.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Nad Narimani

Head 83.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.3% (norm 7.9%)

Grant Dawson

Head 78.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Narimani L/AAccFeatherweight med Dawson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 119 / 345 34.5% 40.7% 337 / 817 41.2% 38.4%
In the clinch 19 / 24 too few to rate 70.5% 59 / 76 77.6% 67.5%
On the ground 44 / 57 77.2% 69.1% 227 / 327 69.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 133 / 357 37.3% 37.2% 433 / 954 45.4% 35.3%
To the body 27 / 42 64.3% 68.4% 116 / 179 64.8% 69.2%
To the legs 22 / 27 81.5% 80.7% 74 / 87 85.1% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Narimani L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Dawson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 128 / 349 36.7% 39.3% 333 / 650 51.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 21 / 28 75.0% 70.3% 48 / 55 87.3% 68.6%
On the ground 15 / 21 too few to rate 69.5% 58 / 79 73.4% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 113 / 326 34.7% 35.9% 297 / 597 49.7% 35.2%
To the body 16 / 30 53.3% 68.1% 97 / 134 72.4% 68.2%
To the legs 35 / 42 83.3% 81.1% 45 / 53 84.9% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
741.2% acc · 1.92/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
4641.1% acc · 3.74/15 · norm 1.34
770.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
866.7% def · norm 63.2%
14:5727.3% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
116:4463.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
10:082:46 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
13:311:05 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
151.22/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dawson has more cage time on record.