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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Michael Trizano vs. Grant Dawson

UFC 4-3-0 vs. 13-2-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-3-0
UFC record
13-2-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
34
AgeΔ 2 yrs
32
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch11-1 vs orthodox fighters
47.7
Layoff (months)Δ 47.3 mo
0.4
WLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Grant Dawson has owned orthodox fighters — 11-1 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and Michael Trizano is orthodox.
Grant Dawson owns the mat — in control 63% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Grant Dawson hunts takedowns — 3.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Michael Trizano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 53
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.2 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Grant Dawson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 132
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.65 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3023.63/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
6233.37/min · norm 3.43
3664.40/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4392.38/min · norm 3.37
53.5%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
51.1%norm 43.7%
50.6%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
44.0%norm 56.3%
30.54/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Michael Trizano

Distance 87.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 7.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 6.4%)

Grant Dawson

Distance 67.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 26.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Michael Trizano

Head 68.1% (norm 77.5%) · Body 19.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 7.9%)

Grant Dawson

Head 78.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Trizano L/AAccFeatherweight med Dawson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 248 / 496 50.0% 40.7% 337 / 817 41.2% 38.4%
In the clinch 33 / 41 80.5% 70.5% 59 / 76 77.6% 67.5%
On the ground 21 / 27 77.8% 69.1% 227 / 327 69.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 159 / 384 41.4% 37.2% 433 / 954 45.4% 35.3%
To the body 74 / 108 68.5% 68.4% 116 / 179 64.8% 69.2%
To the legs 69 / 72 95.8% 80.7% 74 / 87 85.1% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Trizano L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Dawson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 308 / 660 46.7% 39.3% 333 / 650 51.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 35 / 44 79.5% 70.3% 48 / 55 87.3% 68.6%
On the ground 23 / 37 62.2% 69.5% 58 / 79 73.4% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 158 / 477 33.1% 35.9% 297 / 597 49.7% 35.2%
To the body 118 / 162 72.8% 68.1% 97 / 134 72.4% 68.2%
To the legs 90 / 102 88.2% 81.1% 45 / 53 84.9% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
266.7% acc · 0.36/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
4641.1% acc · 3.74/15 · norm 1.34
2472.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
866.7% def · norm 63.2%
10:5813.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
116:4463.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
22:063:59 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
13:311:05 per 15 · norm 2:50
30.54/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
151.22/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dawson has more cage time on record.