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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler

UFC 5-2-0 vs. 2-6-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-2-0
UFC record
2-6-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
30
AgeΔ 10 yrs
40
5'11"
HeightΔ 3"
5'8"
75"
ReachΔ 4"
71"
Orthodox4-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-5 vs orthodox fighters
1.5
Layoff (months)Δ 3.2 mo
4.7
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Mauricio Ruffy has owned orthodox fighters — 4-1 in the UFC (1-1 vs everyone else), and Michael Chandler is orthodox.
Michael Chandler struggles with orthodox fighters — 1-5 in the UFC (1-1 vs everyone else), and Mauricio Ruffy is orthodox.
Mauricio Ruffy carries real power — 1.85 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Mauricio Ruffy

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 51
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.48 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 14 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Michael Chandler

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2010
Tier 3 — regional circuit 30

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.47 · 20 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +7.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1793.68/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3183.85/min · norm 3.43
1723.53/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3934.75/min · norm 3.37
56.5%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
50.5%norm 43.7%
59.4%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
40.9%norm 56.3%
61.85/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
20.36/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mauricio Ruffy

Distance 86.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 10.7% (norm 8.0%)

Michael Chandler

Distance 82.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 1.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 17.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mauricio Ruffy

Head 86.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 6.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.6% (norm 8.0%)

Michael Chandler

Head 77.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 16.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ruffy L/AAccLightweight med Chandler L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 149 / 275 54.2% 38.4% 235 / 517 45.5% 38.4%
In the clinch 7 / 8 too few to rate 67.5% 6 / 6 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 23 / 34 67.6% 69.1% 77 / 107 72.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 146 / 273 53.5% 35.3% 212 / 487 43.5% 35.3%
To the body 13 / 20 too few to rate 69.2% 73 / 104 70.2% 69.2%
To the legs 20 / 24 too few to rate 81.8% 33 / 39 84.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ruffy L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Chandler L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 142 / 383 37.1% 38.9% 299 / 542 55.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 25 / 32 78.1% 68.6% 18 / 22 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 5 / 9 too few to rate 68.2% 76 / 101 75.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 64 / 256 25.0% 35.2% 283 / 521 54.3% 35.2%
To the body 67 / 106 63.2% 68.2% 35 / 57 61.4% 68.2%
To the legs 41 / 62 66.1% 81.5% 75 / 87 86.2% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
936.0% acc · 1.63/15 · norm 1.34
2686.7% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
956.3% def · norm 63.2%
2:014.1% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
15:3218.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
8:582:45 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
23:524:19 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
10.18/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Chandler has more cage time on record.