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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

King Green vs. Grant Dawson

UFC 17-13-1 (1 NC) vs. 13-2-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
17-13-1 (1 NC)
UFC record
13-2-1
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
40
AgeΔ 8 yrs
32
5'10"
HeightΔ 0"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Orthodox3-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch11-1 vs orthodox fighters
1.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
0.4
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Grant Dawson has owned orthodox fighters — 11-1 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and King Green is orthodox.
Grant Dawson owns the mat — in control 63% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Grant Dawson hunts takedowns — 3.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

King Green

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1712
Tier 3 — regional circuit 175

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.85 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 53 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-12 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Grant Dawson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 132
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.65 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

21516.59/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
6233.37/min · norm 3.43
12273.76/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4392.38/min · norm 3.37
53.6%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
51.1%norm 43.7%
61.4%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
44.0%norm 56.3%
70.32/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

King Green

Distance 87.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 5.3% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 7.3% (norm 8.0%)

Grant Dawson

Distance 67.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 26.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

King Green

Head 70.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 18.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.2% (norm 8.0%)

Grant Dawson

Head 78.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Green L/AAccLightweight med Dawson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1747 / 3505 49.8% 38.4% 337 / 817 41.2% 38.4%
In the clinch 182 / 212 85.8% 67.5% 59 / 76 77.6% 67.5%
On the ground 222 / 293 75.8% 69.1% 227 / 327 69.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1252 / 2815 44.5% 35.3% 433 / 954 45.4% 35.3%
To the body 541 / 747 72.4% 69.2% 116 / 179 64.8% 69.2%
To the legs 358 / 448 79.9% 81.8% 74 / 87 85.1% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Green L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Dawson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1057 / 2910 36.3% 38.9% 333 / 650 51.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 73 / 127 57.5% 68.6% 48 / 55 87.3% 68.6%
On the ground 97 / 145 66.9% 68.2% 58 / 79 73.4% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 741 / 2402 30.8% 35.2% 297 / 597 49.7% 35.2%
To the body 242 / 432 56.0% 68.2% 97 / 134 72.4% 68.2%
To the legs 244 / 348 70.1% 81.5% 45 / 53 84.9% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2745.0% acc · 1.24/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
4641.1% acc · 3.74/15 · norm 1.34
5269.3% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
866.7% def · norm 63.2%
46:1514.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
116:4463.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
29:381:21 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
13:311:05 per 15 · norm 2:50
60.28/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
151.22/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Green has more cage time on record.