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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes

UFC 3-0-0 vs. 16-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
3-0-0
UFC record
16-2-0
Women's Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Bantamweight
36
AgeΔ 2 yrs
38
5'8"
HeightΔ 0"
5'8"
66"
ReachΔ 3"
69"
Southpaw2-0 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox3-1 vs southpaws
17
Layoff (months)Δ 23.9 mo
40.9
WWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Amanda Nunes carries real power — 0.59 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.06 Women's Bantamweight norm.
Kayla Harrison hunts takedowns — 2.84 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.93 Women's Bantamweight norm.
Amanda Nunes hunts takedowns — 2.79 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.93 Women's Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Kayla Harrison

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 181
Tier 3 — regional circuit 10

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.52 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.0 wins over .500

Amanda Nunes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 162
Tier 3 — regional circuit 73

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.59 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1364.29/min · norm 3.56
Sig. strikes landed
9284.54/min · norm 3.56
351.10/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4992.44/min · norm 3.47
62.1%norm 46.3%
Striking accuracy
52.0%norm 46.3%
66.0%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
59.3%norm 52.5%
00.00/15 · norm 0.06
Knockdowns
80.59/15 · norm 0.06

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kayla Harrison

Distance 46.1% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 12.3% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 41.6% (norm 6.2%)

Amanda Nunes

Distance 73.4% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 2.9% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 23.8% (norm 6.2%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kayla Harrison

Head 79.5% (norm 75.7%) · Body 13.7% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 6.8% (norm 8.4%)

Amanda Nunes

Head 74.9% (norm 75.7%) · Body 11.1% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 14.0% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Harrison L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med Nunes L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 40 / 101 39.6% 38.3% 639 / 1309 48.8% 38.3%
In the clinch 24 / 27 88.9% 75.2% 33 / 51 64.7% 75.2%
On the ground 72 / 91 79.1% 70.8% 256 / 424 60.4% 70.8%
BY TARGET
To the head 97 / 174 55.7% 37.0% 629 / 1337 47.0% 37.0%
To the body 27 / 30 90.0% 71.2% 124 / 198 62.6% 71.2%
To the legs 12 / 15 too few to rate 80.8% 175 / 249 70.3% 80.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters · Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Harrison L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med vs Nunes L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 27 / 94 28.7% 41.3% 397 / 1071 37.1% 41.3%
In the clinch 3 / 3 too few to rate 74.7% 45 / 66 68.2% 74.7%
On the ground 5 / 6 too few to rate 74.2% 57 / 89 64.0% 74.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 21 / 76 27.6% 38.1% 338 / 1001 33.8% 38.1%
To the body 6 / 19 too few to rate 73.2% 73 / 109 67.0% 73.2%
To the legs 8 / 8 too few to rate 80.7% 88 / 116 75.9% 80.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
637.5% acc · 2.84/15 · norm 0.93
Takedowns landed
3856.7% acc · 2.79/15 · norm 0.93
2100.0% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
2681.3% def · norm 62.5%
18:5059.4% of cage time · norm 25.2%
Control time
69:5834.2% of cage time · norm 25.2%
0:150:07 per 15 · norm 3:20
Time under control lower is better
13:120:58 per 15 · norm 3:20
20.95/15 · norm 0.38
Submission attempts
100.73/15 · norm 0.38

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nunes has more cage time on record.