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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos

UFC 8-5-0 vs. 7-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
8-5-0
UFC record
7-1-0
Women's Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Bantamweight
31
AgeΔ 5 yrs
26
5'5"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
67"
ReachΔ 0"
67"
Orthodox8-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-1 vs orthodox fighters
4.5
Layoff (months)Δ 4.3 mo
0.2
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Luana Santos hunts takedowns — 2.61 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.93 Women's Bantamweight norm.
Karol Rosa carries real power — 0.15 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.06 Women's Bantamweight norm.
Luana Santos owns the mat — in control 54% of cage time, vs a 25% Women's Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Karol Rosa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 85
Tier 3 — regional circuit 113

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.82 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Luana Santos

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 61
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 21
Tier 3 — regional circuit 30

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.66 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

10665.47/min · norm 3.56
Sig. strikes landed
2102.28/min · norm 3.56
8354.28/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2062.24/min · norm 3.47
55.6%norm 46.3%
Striking accuracy
52.8%norm 46.3%
49.5%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
64.8%norm 52.5%
20.15/15 · norm 0.06
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.06

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Karol Rosa

Distance 85.2% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 7.5% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 7.3% (norm 6.2%)

Luana Santos

Distance 89.2% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 9.5% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 1.3% (norm 6.2%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Karol Rosa

Head 71.3% (norm 75.7%) · Body 8.9% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 19.8% (norm 8.4%)

Luana Santos

Head 70.6% (norm 75.7%) · Body 21.4% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 8.0% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Rosa L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med Santos L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 853 / 1634 52.2% 38.3% 187 / 355 52.7% 38.3%
In the clinch 112 / 144 77.8% 75.2% 19 / 38 50.0% 75.2%
On the ground 101 / 139 72.7% 70.8% 4 / 5 too few to rate 70.8%
BY TARGET
To the head 623 / 1366 45.6% 37.0% 123 / 281 43.8% 37.0%
To the body 136 / 171 79.5% 71.2% 61 / 85 71.8% 71.2%
To the legs 307 / 380 80.8% 80.8% 26 / 32 81.2% 80.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters · Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Rosa L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med vs Santos L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 710 / 1493 47.6% 41.3% 157 / 522 30.1% 41.3%
In the clinch 103 / 133 77.4% 74.7% 39 / 53 73.6% 74.7%
On the ground 22 / 28 78.6% 74.2% 10 / 10 too few to rate 74.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 479 / 1216 39.4% 38.1% 125 / 461 27.1% 38.1%
To the body 195 / 250 78.0% 73.2% 52 / 77 67.5% 73.2%
To the legs 161 / 188 85.6% 80.7% 29 / 47 61.7% 80.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1448.3% acc · 1.08/15 · norm 0.93
Takedowns landed
1635.6% acc · 2.61/15 · norm 0.93
2773.0% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
685.7% def · norm 62.5%
52:2026.8% of cage time · norm 25.2%
Control time
50:0854.4% of cage time · norm 25.2%
39:083:00 per 15 · norm 3:20
Time under control lower is better
8:411:24 per 15 · norm 3:20
20.15/15 · norm 0.38
Submission attempts
50.81/15 · norm 0.38

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Rosa has more cage time on record.