Luana Santos

He names her only by the thinnest of margins, calls the matchup genuinely close and hard to resolve, frames his case as merely a plausible scenario, and points bettors toward the other side if the price is wide.

A younger, physically quick flyweight call-up whose rough but busy striking is secondary to an aggressive takedown-and-top game that can steal rounds if she lands it.

Explicit risk left standing: "I think she gets beat" if kept standing.

A decent, high-output striker whose power and volume are said to cover for rougher technique; she throws wild overhands that leave her open, mainly to close distance into the grappling. Her best path is grappling-led -- aggressive, well-landed takedowns and strong top control that lets her attack submissions -- and that path is judged to be her way to beat a technically better pure striker.

says outright this fight 'could go either way' even after naming the pick

A decent striker with real aggression, volume and power, but wild -- he flags the sloppiness as a genuine liability, not just color. Her clear advantage is grappling: if the fight hits the mat, especially with her on top, she has aggressive takedowns built around throws, good top control, and she looks to attack submissions once there.

Sides decisively with Lisboa, citing her size advantage and expecting her clinch control to shut down Santos's throws.

Campaigning at a new weight class this time out, she brings looping, high-output overhand punches as her way to force a path into the clinch and set up her throws. On the mat she is aggressive about chasing the takedown, with a judo-style toss, strong top control and submission attacks once she gets there.

Picks Santos on a specific mechanism -- O'Neill's aggression plays into Santos's judo-based throws, so Santos should get early takedowns and put O'Neill 'in trouble.' No hedge on the outcome itself beyond the ordinary uncertainty about O'Neill's post-injury form.

Judo-based grappler who is aggressive with her takedowns and throws, with very good top control and aggressive submission attacks. Her striking is technically unpolished -- wild, wide overhands -- but the analyst calls it effective in-fight because it creates the opening she needs to close distance and get her hands on an opponent.

VERDICT KEPT AS STATED (Santos) PER RULE 2G; REASONING REBUILT FROM SURVIVING MATERIAL ONLY. An excluded private-life aside about Agapova sits at segs 7-8 (existence only, no substance recorded anywhere in this file), and the analyst names that aside as his own deciding factor for the pick -- so that stated reasoning cannot be used. The only independent, legitimate argument for Santos is her Judo-background takedowns and top control (seg 6), which targets Agapova's own stated takedown-defense and get-up problems (seg 3) -- but that path is heavily conditioned by the analyst himself on getting the takedown in the first place, and in the same breath he calls Agapova the 'much better striker' and says the fight is otherwise close. No explicit high-confidence marker is given beyond 'probably'. The surviving case does not support more than a coinflip, so confidence is lowered accordingly rather than carried through at whatever level the excluded reasoning implied.

A good grappler with a Judo background -- aggressive takedowns and throws, and very good top control once she gets there. On the feet the analyst is hesitant to call her more than decent: her volume and power carry her (including a prior knockout) but her punching is mostly wild overhands and not polished. The analyst's own words call Agapova the better striker of the two, leaving Santos's wrestling/top-control path as the main technical case for her.

He names Santos as the side he is taking on volume, but calls it a really close matchup and explicitly says he does not recommend betting it either way -- the root-beer idiom plus advice to stay off the fight.

She too comes from a judo background, and once the fight hits the mat she hunts the finish a touch more aggressively than her opponent and gets her ground attack rolling sooner. Standing alone her hands are nothing special, but her output clearly outpaces Egger's, and that gap is what tips a tight grappling matchup in the analyst's eyes.

Says it is hard to judge either UFC-debut-era fighter yet, leans toward Santos twice, and tells viewers not to wager on it.

A UFC debutante with a Judo background who prefers throws and clinch entries to get on top, where she looks to control, win minutes, and stay safe; her own striking is explicitly rated below even a 'decent' by the analyst, so she is not seeking to trade on the feet.