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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Kai Kamaka vs. TJ Brown

UFC 2-4-1 vs. 3-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-4-1
UFC record
3-5-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
31
AgeΔ 5 yrs
36
5'7"
HeightΔ 2"
5'9"
69"
ReachΔ 3"
72"
Orthodox1-2 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch2-3 vs orthodox fighters
0.8
Layoff (months)Δ 35.9 mo
36.7
LLWDL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
TJ Brown is a submission threat — 1.33 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
TJ Brown hunts takedowns — 3.11 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Kai Kamaka absorbs 6.25 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Kai Kamaka

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 105
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 73

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.86 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

TJ Brown

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 45
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 14
Tier 3 — regional circuit 163

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.52 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4315.53/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3423.37/min · norm 3.52
4876.25/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3143.10/min · norm 3.54
57.7%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
44.2%norm 44.8%
54.9%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
49.3%norm 54.8%
10.19/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kai Kamaka

Distance 89.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.1% (norm 6.4%)

TJ Brown

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.7% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.5% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kai Kamaka

Head 62.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 26.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 10.8% (norm 7.9%)

TJ Brown

Head 83.1% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.7% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Kamaka L/AAccFeatherweight med Brown L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 366 / 668 54.8% 40.7% 270 / 687 39.3% 40.7%
In the clinch 53 / 63 84.1% 70.5% 42 / 52 80.8% 70.5%
On the ground 12 / 16 too few to rate 69.1% 30 / 35 85.7% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 188 / 466 40.3% 37.2% 246 / 643 38.3% 37.2%
To the body 173 / 200 86.5% 68.4% 69 / 95 72.6% 68.4%
To the legs 70 / 81 86.4% 80.7% 27 / 36 75.0% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Kamaka L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Brown L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 351 / 906 38.7% 39.3% 246 / 535 46.0% 39.3%
In the clinch 110 / 143 76.9% 70.3% 19 / 21 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 26 / 31 83.9% 69.5% 49 / 63 77.8% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 310 / 836 37.1% 35.9% 200 / 480 41.7% 35.9%
To the body 129 / 182 70.9% 68.1% 45 / 62 72.6% 68.1%
To the legs 48 / 62 77.4% 81.1% 69 / 77 89.6% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
753.8% acc · 1.35/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
2155.3% acc · 3.11/15 · norm 1.17
1155.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
832.0% def · norm 61.5%
15:2419.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
31:3431.1% of cage time · norm 16.5%
5:591:09 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
30:284:30 per 15 · norm 3:11
10.19/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
91.33/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brown has more cage time on record.