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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Josh Emmett vs. Jon Tuck

UFC 10-7-0 vs. 4-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-7-0
UFC record
4-5-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
41
AgeΔ 1 yrs
42
5'6"
HeightΔ 5"
5'11"
70"
ReachΔ 3"
73"
Orthodox8-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-3 vs orthodox fighters
7.8
Layoff (months)Δ 90.6 mo
98.4
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Josh Emmett carries real power — 0.85 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Jon Tuck is a submission threat — 0.97 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Jon Tuck rarely shoots — 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Josh Emmett

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 107
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.11 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Jon Tuck

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 55
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.19 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 16 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7753.67/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3243.00/min · norm 3.43
9554.52/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4043.74/min · norm 3.37
35.8%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
40.0%norm 43.7%
59.6%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
60.7%norm 56.3%
120.85/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.28/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Josh Emmett

Distance 91.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 5.8% (norm 6.4%)

Jon Tuck

Distance 86.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.3% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 6.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Josh Emmett

Head 81.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.1% (norm 7.9%)

Jon Tuck

Head 77.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 13.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.8% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Emmett L/AAccFeatherweight med Tuck L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 654 / 1978 33.1% 40.7% 259 / 703 36.8% 38.4%
In the clinch 43 / 63 68.3% 70.5% 30 / 51 58.8% 67.5%
On the ground 78 / 126 61.9% 69.1% 35 / 55 63.6% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 496 / 1768 28.1% 37.2% 182 / 630 28.9% 35.3%
To the body 164 / 267 61.4% 68.4% 82 / 108 75.9% 69.2%
To the legs 115 / 132 87.1% 80.7% 60 / 71 84.5% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Emmett L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Tuck L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 824 / 2170 38.0% 39.3% 302 / 885 34.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 61 / 92 66.3% 70.3% 50 / 71 70.4% 68.6%
On the ground 70 / 102 68.6% 69.5% 52 / 72 72.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 665 / 1957 34.0% 35.9% 270 / 826 32.7% 35.2%
To the body 145 / 229 63.3% 68.1% 89 / 136 65.4% 68.2%
To the legs 145 / 178 81.5% 81.1% 45 / 66 68.2% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1536.6% acc · 1.07/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
333.3% acc · 0.42/15 · norm 1.34
743.8% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1050.0% def · norm 63.2%
16:518.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
18:4417.4% of cage time · norm 19.0%
9:340:40 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
20:242:50 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.07/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
70.97/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Emmett has more cage time on record.