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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Jacob Malkoun vs. AJ Dobson

UFC 6-4-0 vs. 1-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-4-0
UFC record
1-3-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
31
AgeΔ 3 yrs
34
5'9"
HeightΔ 4"
6'1"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
76"
Orthodox3-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-3 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 31 mo
31.4
LWWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Jacob Malkoun hunts takedowns — 4.69 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.35 Middleweight norm.
Jacob Malkoun owns the mat — in control 41% of cage time, vs a 19% Middleweight norm.
AJ Dobson absorbs 5.61 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.20 Middleweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Jacob Malkoun

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 63
Tier 3 — regional circuit 40

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.24 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 3 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

AJ Dobson

Full career not yet synced for AJ Dobson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5304.60/min · norm 3.23
Sig. strikes landed
1923.87/min · norm 3.23
3042.64/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2785.61/min · norm 3.20
55.9%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
44.5%norm 47.4%
54.1%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
46.1%norm 53.8%
10.13/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jacob Malkoun

Distance 79.4% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 3.6% (norm 9.0%) · Ground 17.0% (norm 10.0%)

AJ Dobson

Distance 90.3% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 6.7% (norm 9.0%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 10.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jacob Malkoun

Head 93.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 5.8% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 0.4% (norm 8.4%)

AJ Dobson

Head 75.6% (norm 78.0%) · Body 9.3% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 15.1% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Malkoun L/AAccMiddleweight med Dobson L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 395 / 753 52.5% 40.5% 167 / 389 42.9% 40.5%
In the clinch 19 / 34 55.9% 70.7% 18 / 29 62.1% 70.7%
On the ground 116 / 161 72.0% 69.4% 7 / 13 too few to rate 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 485 / 889 54.6% 38.8% 105 / 326 32.2% 38.8%
To the body 41 / 55 74.5% 71.6% 29 / 40 72.5% 71.6%
To the legs 4 / 4 too few to rate 83.3% 58 / 65 89.2% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 178 fighters · Middleweight: 178 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Malkoun L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Dobson L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 260 / 596 43.6% 39.5% 200 / 406 49.3% 39.5%
In the clinch 16 / 30 53.3% 70.4% 21 / 30 70.0% 70.4%
On the ground 28 / 36 77.8% 69.0% 57 / 80 71.2% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 234 / 570 41.1% 37.7% 131 / 350 37.4% 37.7%
To the body 36 / 49 73.5% 71.3% 58 / 66 87.9% 71.3%
To the legs 34 / 43 79.1% 82.0% 89 / 100 89.0% 82.0%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3640.9% acc · 4.69/15 · norm 1.35
Takedowns landed
583.3% acc · 1.51/15 · norm 1.35
1152.4% def · norm 63.3%
Takedowns stopped
1365.0% def · norm 63.3%
47:4041.4% of cage time · norm 19.4%
Control time
7:0414.3% of cage time · norm 19.4%
11:271:29 per 15 · norm 2:58
Time under control lower is better
10:063:03 per 15 · norm 2:58
50.65/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Malkoun has more cage time on record.