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AJ Dobson
Middleweight

AJ Dobson

1-3-0
Striker Wrestler
6'1"Height
76"Reach
OrthodoxStance
34Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
12:23Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 55 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Mar 2024 · stats read 41 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking volume -1, striking technique +1, hand speed +1 (+4) Accuracy — Average, rated 47 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Weak, rated 15 of 100 · claims striking defense +2 (+6) Durability — Below avg, rated 28 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 52 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Mar 2024 · stats read 31 → nudged -9 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Average, rated 50 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 39 · claims getup +1 (+2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Below avg, rated 40 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Ribas vs Namajunas Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 89) · March 19, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 watch ↗
grappling not yet read
wrestling good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Ribas vs Namajunas Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 89) · March 19, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 280: Full Card Analysis, Preview, & Prediction · October 18, 2022 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 2 reads
grappling not yet read
wrestling good 3 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense, Grappling · stats alone on Durability, Control.

Built on 49 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Striker average striking — rates 55 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Mar 2024
Wrestler average wrestling — rates 52 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Mar 2024
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.87
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.61
Striking accuracy44.5%
Striking defense46.1%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min1.51
Takedown accuracy83.3%
Takedown defense65.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time14.3%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Edmen Shahbazyan coinflip UFC Fight Night Ribas vs Namajunas Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 89) · March 19, 2024
strikinggood wrestlinggood

The analyst opens by disclosing he struggles to read either fighter's skill set, telling the viewer to take his read here 'with a grain of salt', repeats a near-pass at the pick, and gives momentum/psychology rather than a skills edge as his stated reason -- a direct, repeated hedge on the win itself, the clearest coinflip case on the card alongside the main event.

The read on AJ Dobson: a good striker, quick and powerful when he commits, with sound striking defense, though his output is criticized as too passive. His wrestling is rated pretty good, built around catching kicks as his way onto the floor, and scrambling well once there. The analyst's stated reason for the pick leans more on recent momentum and psychology than on a clear skills edge, and explicitly says he is not confident in the read.

Strengthfast and powerful when he strikes
Strengthgood striking defense
Strengthgood at catching kicks into takedowns
Strengthgood in scrambles
Weaknesspassive, low striking volume
vs Tafon Nchukwi clear UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 · 1 read since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

Calls Dobson getting the finish, most likely via knockout or stoppage -- a stated, specific finish mechanism, not a hedged lean.

A good, fast, powerful striker who can be low-volume at times, waiting for one big single shot; he also has good wrestling and looks to take the back once he gets a fighter down. The analyst expects him to get the finish.

Strengthfast, powerful striking
Strengthgood wrestling, looks to take the back once down
vs Armen Petrosyan lean UFC 280: Full Card Analysis, Preview, & Prediction · October 18, 2022 · 2 reads since
wrestlingdecent

He says he 'would pick Petrosyan,' expecting him to come out on top more often than not, while calling Dobson's takedown-and-decision route genuinely live and declining to lay real money on the price.

A boxer with a slight wrestling edge over Petrosyan who the analyst thinks has a real path via takedowns and banking rounds toward a decision, even though he leans Petrosyan overall. Dobson's striking numbers are good on offense but he absorbs more than average.

StrengthGood offensive boxing with a positive striking differential
StrengthSlight wrestling advantage over Petrosyan, likely working on takedowns for this fight
WeaknessTakes more damage than average per his own striking numbers

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
February 12, 2022 vs Jacob Malkoun — 3.47/min (L) Feb '22 October 22, 2022 vs Armen Petrosyan — 3.87/min (L) Oct '22 August 12, 2023 vs Tafon Nchukwi — 4.47/min (W) Aug '23 March 23, 2024 vs Edmen Shahbazyan — 3.3/min (L) — only 4.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Mar '24

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Edmen Shahbazyan 12-4 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:33 — UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · March 23, 2024
15/46Sig. strikes
27/43Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
1:15Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Tafon Nchukwi 6-3 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · August 12, 2023
67/134Sig. strikes
53/99Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
4:33Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Armen Petrosyan 7-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · October 22, 2022
58/161Sig. strikes
118/246Absorbed
3/3Takedowns
0:49Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jacob Malkoun 5-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · February 12, 2022
52/90Sig. strikes
80/128Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:27Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-3-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 2
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 4

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 168 qualified Middleweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.9 avg 3.3
Strikes absorbed /min 5.6 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 44.5% avg 47.0%
Striking defense 46.1% avg 53.4%
Takedowns /15 min 1.5 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 83.3% avg 40.4%
Takedown defense 65.0% avg 61.3%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.7
Control time 14.3% avg 21.6%
Finish rate 0.0% avg 60.8%

Headshot of AJ Dobson by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized