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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Harry Hardwick vs. Kaue Fernandes

UFC 0-2-0 vs. 3-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-2-0
UFC record
3-2-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
32
AgeΔ 1 yrs
31
5'8"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
71"
ReachΔ 2"
73"
Switch0-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox2-0 vs switch-stance fighters
7.8
Layoff (months)Δ 5.1 mo
2.7
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Kaue Fernandes carries real power — 1.55 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Harry Hardwick absorbs 8.54 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Harry Hardwick rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Harry Hardwick

Full career not yet synced for Harry Hardwick — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Kaue Fernandes

Full career not yet synced for Kaue Fernandes — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

735.47/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1654.26/min · norm 3.43
1148.54/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
631.63/min · norm 3.37
42.4%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
55.4%norm 43.7%
44.1%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
60.1%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
41.55/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Harry Hardwick

Distance 99.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 0.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 6.4%)

Kaue Fernandes

Distance 86.2% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 10.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Harry Hardwick

Head 78.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.3% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.2% (norm 7.9%)

Kaue Fernandes

Head 64.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 15.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 19.8% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Hardwick L/AAccFeatherweight med Fernandes L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 73 / 171 42.7% 40.7% 138 / 257 53.7% 38.4%
In the clinch 0 / 1 too few to rate 70.5% 7 / 9 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1% 20 / 32 62.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 45 / 135 33.3% 37.2% 79 / 193 40.9% 35.3%
To the body 11 / 16 too few to rate 68.4% 33 / 46 71.7% 69.2%
To the legs 17 / 21 too few to rate 80.7% 53 / 59 89.8% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Hardwick L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Fernandes L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 112 / 199 56.3% 39.3% 43 / 127 33.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 2 / 4 too few to rate 70.3% 8 / 11 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 0 / 1 too few to rate 69.5% 12 / 20 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 71 / 150 47.3% 35.9% 43 / 121 35.5% 35.2%
To the body 21 / 29 72.4% 68.1% 13 / 26 50.0% 68.2%
To the legs 22 / 25 88.0% 81.1% 7 / 11 too few to rate 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
3100.0% acc · 1.16/15 · norm 1.34
0— def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1076.9% def · norm 63.2%
0:445.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
3:329.1% of cage time · norm 19.0%
1:482:01 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
8:483:24 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Fernandes has more cage time on record.