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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Daniel Santos vs. Julio Arce

UFC 5-2-0 vs. 6-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-2-0
UFC record
6-4-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
31
AgeΔ 6 yrs
37
5'7"
HeightΔ 0"
5'7"
67"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Orthodox0-1 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw4-3 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 30.8 mo
31.2
WLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Daniel Santos hunts takedowns — 2.49 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Daniel Santos owns the mat — in control 27% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Julio Arce rarely shoots — 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Daniel Santos

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.21 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Julio Arce

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 85
Tier 3 — regional circuit 142

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.08 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4335.14/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
5034.12/min · norm 3.52
4425.24/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3753.07/min · norm 3.54
41.6%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
34.9%norm 44.8%
48.6%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
68.4%norm 54.8%
20.36/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
30.37/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Daniel Santos

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 6.4% (norm 6.4%)

Julio Arce

Distance 95.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 0.7% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Daniel Santos

Head 76.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 7.9% (norm 7.9%)

Julio Arce

Head 84.3% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.4% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 2.3% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Santos L/AAccFeatherweight med Arce L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 343 / 924 37.1% 40.7% 460 / 1375 33.5% 40.7%
In the clinch 38 / 50 76.0% 70.5% 36 / 58 62.1% 70.5%
On the ground 52 / 67 77.6% 69.1% 7 / 10 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 273 / 798 34.2% 37.2% 361 / 1217 29.7% 37.2%
To the body 98 / 161 60.9% 68.4% 116 / 193 60.1% 68.4%
To the legs 62 / 82 75.6% 80.7% 26 / 33 78.8% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Santos L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Arce L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 401 / 804 49.9% 39.3% 309 / 1072 28.8% 39.3%
In the clinch 27 / 39 69.2% 70.3% 41 / 67 61.2% 70.3%
On the ground 14 / 17 too few to rate 69.5% 25 / 46 54.3% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 309 / 693 44.6% 35.9% 180 / 876 20.5% 35.9%
To the body 96 / 126 76.2% 68.1% 102 / 179 57.0% 68.1%
To the legs 37 / 41 90.2% 81.1% 93 / 130 71.5% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1434.1% acc · 2.49/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
428.6% acc · 0.49/15 · norm 1.17
1266.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2596.2% def · norm 61.5%
22:2826.7% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
8:196.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
6:351:10 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
16:352:02 per 15 · norm 3:11
10.18/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
30.37/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Arce has more cage time on record.