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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Cody Durden vs. Matt Schnell

UFC 8-9-1 vs. 7-9-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
8-9-1
UFC record
7-9-0 (1 NC)
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
35
AgeΔ 1 yrs
36
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
67"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Southpaw5-7-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-2 vs southpaws
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 4.8 mo
5
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Cody Durden hunts takedowns — 3.99 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Cody Durden owns the mat — in control 37% of cage time, vs a 17% Flyweight norm.
Matt Schnell is a submission threat — 1.18 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.58 Flyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Cody Durden

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Matt Schnell

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 62
Tier 3 — regional circuit 40

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.71 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5873.19/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
5144.05/min · norm 3.48
6733.66/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5304.18/min · norm 3.24
45.5%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
40.3%norm 44.6%
51.2%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
54.5%norm 56.4%
10.08/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
10.12/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cody Durden

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 7.5%)

Matt Schnell

Distance 90.3% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 5.0% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cody Durden

Head 84.8% (norm 75.9%) · Body 7.4% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 9.3%)

Matt Schnell

Head 84.2% (norm 75.9%) · Body 8.2% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.7% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Durden L/AAccFlyweight med Schnell L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 481 / 1145 42.0% 39.9% 426 / 1152 37.0% 39.9%
In the clinch 21 / 28 75.0% 70.1% 43 / 64 67.2% 70.1%
On the ground 85 / 116 73.3% 71.1% 45 / 60 75.0% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 438 / 1093 40.1% 37.6% 370 / 1074 34.5% 37.6%
To the body 69 / 95 72.6% 68.7% 66 / 104 63.5% 68.7%
To the legs 80 / 101 79.2% 79.7% 78 / 98 79.6% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Durden L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Schnell L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 560 / 1228 45.6% 39.9% 398 / 1007 39.5% 39.9%
In the clinch 55 / 75 73.3% 68.8% 48 / 65 73.8% 68.8%
On the ground 58 / 76 76.3% 70.4% 84 / 93 90.3% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 432 / 1030 41.9% 35.4% 379 / 962 39.4% 35.4%
To the body 123 / 199 61.8% 67.9% 67 / 92 72.8% 67.9%
To the legs 118 / 150 78.7% 79.7% 84 / 111 75.7% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4950.5% acc · 3.99/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
545.5% acc · 0.59/15 · norm 1.30
1356.5% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
1043.5% def · norm 61.2%
68:3437.3% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
8:326.7% of cage time · norm 17.0%
27:262:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
22:202:38 per 15 · norm 2:46
80.65/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
101.18/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Durden has more cage time on record.