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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Charles Johnson vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

UFC 9-7-0 vs. 4-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
9-7-0
UFC record
4-2-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
35
AgeΔ 8 yrs
27
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
5'6"
70"
ReachΔ 3"
67"
Switch5-5 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
2.7
Layoff (months)Δ 2.3 mo
0.4
WLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Lone'er Kavanagh carries real power — 0.36 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Charles Johnson carries real power — 0.30 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Charles Johnson rarely shoots — 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Charles Johnson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 87
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 61
Tier 3 — regional circuit 51

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.07 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Lone'er Kavanagh

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 40
Tier 3 — regional circuit 20

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 12 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.7 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9344.60/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
3444.16/min · norm 3.48
7973.93/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3263.94/min · norm 3.24
49.5%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
50.1%norm 44.6%
55.5%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
53.6%norm 56.4%
40.30/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
20.36/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Charles Johnson

Distance 87.3% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 9.4% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 3.3% (norm 7.5%)

Lone'er Kavanagh

Distance 86.4% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 5.4% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 8.2% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Charles Johnson

Head 65.8% (norm 75.9%) · Body 21.0% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 13.2% (norm 9.3%)

Lone'er Kavanagh

Head 70.6% (norm 75.9%) · Body 17.2% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 12.2% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Johnson L/AAccFlyweight med Kavanagh L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 769 / 1645 46.7% 39.9% 280 / 593 47.2% 39.9%
In the clinch 124 / 177 70.1% 70.1% 25 / 37 67.6% 70.1%
On the ground 41 / 63 65.1% 71.1% 39 / 56 69.6% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 472 / 1241 38.0% 37.6% 199 / 484 41.1% 37.6%
To the body 269 / 396 67.9% 68.7% 82 / 118 69.5% 68.7%
To the legs 193 / 248 77.8% 79.7% 63 / 84 75.0% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Johnson L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Kavanagh L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 711 / 1662 42.8% 39.9% 256 / 615 41.6% 39.9%
In the clinch 58 / 90 64.4% 68.8% 30 / 39 76.9% 68.8%
On the ground 28 / 40 70.0% 70.4% 40 / 49 81.6% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 425 / 1274 33.4% 35.4% 203 / 509 39.9% 35.4%
To the body 187 / 287 65.2% 67.9% 48 / 98 49.0% 67.9%
To the legs 185 / 231 80.1% 79.7% 75 / 96 78.1% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
614.6% acc · 0.44/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
646.2% acc · 1.09/15 · norm 1.30
8766.9% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
1982.6% def · norm 61.2%
11:595.9% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
9:4211.7% of cage time · norm 17.0%
56:054:08 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
14:172:35 per 15 · norm 2:46
60.44/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
20.36/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Johnson has more cage time on record.