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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan

UFC 2-4-0 vs. 6-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-4-0
UFC record
6-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
30
AgeΔ 3 yrs
33
5'10"
HeightΔ 0"
5'10"
73"
ReachΔ 2"
71"
Orthodox2-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-1 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 6.7 mo
7.1
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Chris Duncan hunts takedowns — 2.80 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Chris Duncan carries real power — 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Bolaji Oki outworks the Lightweight division — 5.84 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Bolaji Oki

Full career not yet synced for Bolaji Oki — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Chris Duncan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 103
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.68 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4155.84/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3214.60/min · norm 3.43
3655.14/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2954.23/min · norm 3.37
47.1%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
46.2%norm 43.7%
59.5%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.3%norm 56.3%
10.21/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
20.43/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Bolaji Oki

Distance 91.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 3.7% (norm 8.0%)

Chris Duncan

Distance 89.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 6.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Bolaji Oki

Head 78.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 16.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.4% (norm 8.0%)

Chris Duncan

Head 73.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Oki L/AAccLightweight med Duncan L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 368 / 805 45.7% 38.4% 264 / 624 42.3% 38.4%
In the clinch 32 / 43 74.4% 67.5% 22 / 29 75.9% 67.5%
On the ground 15 / 33 45.5% 69.1% 35 / 42 83.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 281 / 694 40.5% 35.3% 194 / 508 38.2% 35.3%
To the body 101 / 148 68.2% 69.2% 73 / 102 71.6% 69.2%
To the legs 33 / 39 84.6% 81.8% 54 / 85 63.5% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Oki L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Duncan L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 308 / 812 37.9% 38.9% 256 / 567 45.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 22 / 35 62.9% 68.6% 33 / 43 76.7% 68.6%
On the ground 35 / 55 63.6% 68.2% 6 / 9 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 254 / 728 34.9% 35.2% 217 / 520 41.7% 35.2%
To the body 65 / 107 60.7% 68.2% 34 / 49 69.4% 68.2%
To the legs 46 / 67 68.7% 81.5% 44 / 50 88.0% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
660.0% acc · 1.27/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
1340.6% acc · 2.80/15 · norm 1.34
1270.6% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1055.6% def · norm 63.2%
9:2713.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
15:1421.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
8:251:46 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
6:461:27 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
30.65/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Duncan has more cage time on record.