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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Belal Muhammad vs. Randy Brown

UFC 15-6-0 (1 NC) vs. 14-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-6-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
14-9-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
38
AgeΔ 2 yrs
36
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
72"
ReachΔ 6"
78"
Orthodox11-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox11-7 vs orthodox fighters
5
Layoff (months)Δ 4.9 mo
0.1
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Belal Muhammad hunts takedowns — 1.98 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Randy Brown rarely shoots — 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Belal Muhammad outworks the Welterweight division — 4.36 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.17 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Belal Muhammad

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 176
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.39 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.5 wins over .500

Randy Brown

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 148
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.28 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

15154.36/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
10324.19/min · norm 3.17
13623.92/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8153.31/min · norm 3.08
42.4%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
47.0%norm 44.75%
55.2%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
53.0%norm 55.25%
00.00/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
60.37/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Belal Muhammad

Distance 91.5% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.0% (norm 8.1%)

Randy Brown

Distance 86.1% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 8.7% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Belal Muhammad

Head 86.6% (norm 78.3%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.3% (norm 8.0%)

Randy Brown

Head 76.2% (norm 78.3%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Muhammad L/AAccWelterweight med Brown L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1324 / 3270 40.5% 38.5% 800 / 1890 42.3% 38.5%
In the clinch 72 / 124 58.1% 67.8% 154 / 190 81.1% 67.8%
On the ground 119 / 178 66.9% 67.0% 78 / 115 67.8% 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1166 / 3095 37.7% 36.4% 636 / 1673 38.0% 36.4%
To the body 219 / 324 67.6% 70.7% 216 / 299 72.2% 70.7%
To the legs 130 / 153 85.0% 83.1% 180 / 223 80.7% 83.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Muhammad L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Brown L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1257 / 2896 43.4% 39.1% 614 / 1447 42.4% 39.1%
In the clinch 68 / 86 79.1% 68.9% 106 / 143 74.1% 68.9%
On the ground 37 / 57 64.9% 68.0% 95 / 144 66.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 780 / 2308 33.8% 35.6% 322 / 1101 29.2% 35.6%
To the body 245 / 350 70.0% 69.6% 150 / 211 71.1% 69.6%
To the legs 337 / 381 88.5% 82.1% 343 / 422 81.3% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4635.9% acc · 1.98/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
1134.4% acc · 0.67/15 · norm 1.31
4890.6% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
4771.2% def · norm 63.9%
76:1821.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
36:4614.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
18:530:48 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
73:154:27 per 15 · norm 3:15
30.13/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
80.49/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brown has more cage time on record.