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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alex Reyes vs. Tom Nolan

UFC 0-3-0 vs. 6-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-3-0
UFC record
6-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
40
AgeΔ 14 yrs
26
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
73"
ReachΔ 0"
73"
Orthodox0-1 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw6-1 vs orthodox fighters
26.6
Layoff (months)Δ 26.5 mo
0.1
LLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Tom Nolan is a submission threat — 1.15 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Alex Reyes absorbs 6.92 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.
Tom Nolan outworks the Lightweight division — 4.95 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alex Reyes

Full career not yet synced for Alex Reyes — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Tom Nolan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 61
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.73 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 12 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

894.46/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3244.95/min · norm 3.43
1386.92/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2143.27/min · norm 3.37
46.6%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
49.5%norm 43.7%
48.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
47.8%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
10.23/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alex Reyes

Distance 81.7% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 17.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 0.5% (norm 8.0%)

Tom Nolan

Distance 78.3% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 10.6% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alex Reyes

Head 64.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 22.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.1% (norm 8.0%)

Tom Nolan

Head 67.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 22.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Reyes L/AAccLightweight med Nolan L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 67 / 156 42.9% 38.4% 225 / 512 43.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 21 / 34 61.8% 67.5% 45 / 69 65.2% 67.5%
On the ground 1 / 1 too few to rate 69.1% 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 39 / 124 31.5% 35.3% 184 / 444 41.4% 35.3%
To the body 27 / 42 64.3% 69.2% 91 / 144 63.2% 69.2%
To the legs 23 / 25 92.0% 81.8% 49 / 66 74.2% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Reyes L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Nolan L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 97 / 212 45.8% 38.9% 172 / 339 50.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 39 / 49 79.6% 68.6% 21 / 36 58.3% 68.6%
On the ground 2 / 5 too few to rate 68.2% 21 / 35 60.0% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 77 / 182 42.3% 35.2% 96 / 262 36.6% 35.2%
To the body 42 / 62 67.7% 68.2% 65 / 93 69.9% 68.2%
To the legs 19 / 22 too few to rate 81.5% 53 / 55 96.4% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
228.6% acc · 1.50/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
531.3% acc · 1.15/15 · norm 1.34
0— def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
952.9% def · norm 63.2%
4:3523.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
10:5616.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
0:260:19 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
21:064:49 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
51.15/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nolan has more cage time on record.