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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Middleweight

Zach Reese

10-4-0 (1 NC) UFC 5-4-0 (1 NC)
Fast Starter Precision Striker KO-Prone Padded Record
—Height
—Reach
—Stance
—Age
1KO wins
1Sub wins
40.0%Finish rate
7:23Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Above avg, rated 70 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Jul 2026 · stats read 69 → nudged +4 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +2, striking technique +2, kicking +2, pressure +1 (+6) Accuracy — Strong, rated 93 of 100 · claims striking technique +2 (+4) Striking D — Weak, rated 20 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 24 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 61 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Aug 2024 · stats read 57 → nudged +0 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Average, rated 48 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 37 · tag bottom passivity: active (+2) · claims getup -1 (-2) Grappling — Average, rated 66 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Oct 2026 · stats read 61 → nudged +2 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +2, sub defense -1, ground and pound +2 (+5) Control — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · claims ground and pound +2 (+3) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
8 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 329 Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 5, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Hernandez Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 14, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Lopes vs Silva Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 9, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 26, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC 311 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · January 16, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Louisville) · June 4, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · November 28, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good None · October 21, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 329 Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 5, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Hernandez Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 14, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Lopes vs Silva Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 9, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC 311 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · January 16, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · November 28, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 8 reads
grappling good 5 reads
wrestling good 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D, Durability.

Built on 73 minutes of tracked cage time across 10 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Fast Starter 138 MMA · May 2025 tags pace: fast starter
Precision Striker strong accuracy — rates 93 of 100 · claims striking technique +2 (+4)
KO-Prone 3 of 4 losses came by knockout
Padded Record 138 MMA · Feb 2026 tags competition quality: padded
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min5.02
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.02
Striking accuracy54.3%
Striking defense46.1%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.2
Takedowns / 15 min2.23
Takedown accuracy57.9%
Takedown defense59.1%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.81
Control time14.4%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-2

Insider info

9 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Mickey Gall lean None · October 21, 2026
grapplinggood strikinggood wrestlinggood

He frames the pick as the more likely outcome rather than a firm one, leaves a described path for the opponent to control the fight on top, and signs off with a resigned, reluctant endorsement.

A tall, rangy, power-punching striker with a credible grappling game, undercut by poor range management and a habit of fighting off his back.

Strengthreal power in the hands
Strengthstrings punches and kicks together fluidly
Strengtheffective body work with front kicks and round kicks
Strengthpowerful slams and heavy ground-and-pound
Strengthaggressive in hunting submissions
Weaknessfails to use his length to keep opponents at the end of his strikes despite the size advantage
Weaknessspends too much time working from bottom position, which can hand the opponent top control and control time
ko power · goodrange · longbottom passivity · activerange control · poor
vs Ryan Gandra coinflip UFC 329 Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 5, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

He admits he has no real read on this matchup, calls it roughly a coin toss, and tells viewers to just chase the better betting number.

Judged the more gifted fighter here on raw tools: a genuinely strong striker with real power who blends his hands and kicks smoothly, including a nasty shot to the body, though he struggles badly to manage distance for someone built the way he is -- a gap the analyst finds frustrating given everything else he can do. His ground game features powerful slams, heavy top damage, and a dangerous submission arsenal, undercut by an odd comfort with letting fights go to his own back. The overall read is a player whose instincts lag behind his physical gifts.

Strengthpower
Strengthcombines punches and kicks well
Strengthbody kicks
Strengthpowerful slams
Strengthheavy ground and pound
Strengthsubmission arsenal
Weaknesspoor range control despite his frame
Weaknesstoo comfortable working from his back
ko power · goodsub threat · good
vs Michel Pereira coinflip UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Hernandez Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 14, 2026 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

says outright he's struggling with this pick and feels like he's missing information

Our paraphrase: a good, powerful striker who puts punches and kicks together well, with both his front kick and roundhouse to the body singled out as excellent, but range control is called a real problem for a man his size -- something the analyst says would help him a great deal if he ever fixed it. His grappling brings powerful slams and heavy ground-and-pound, and he does hunt submissions, but his willingness to work from his own back is flagged as a recurring issue that has previously gotten him slammed while reaching for a finish. Momentum is credited to him coming in, built on wins the analyst feels haven't been that impressive given the level of opposition.

Strengthgood, powerful striking
Strengthcombines punches and kicks well
Strengthexcellent front kick and roundhouse to the body
Strengthpowerful slams
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound
Strengthgoes after submissions
Weaknesspoor range control despite his size/length
Weaknesswillingness to work from his own back has backfired before
competition quality · padded
vs Sedriques Dumas lean UFC Fight Night Lopes vs Silva Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 9, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Picks Reese clearly but repeatedly questions Reese's fight-IQ/decision-making as a live risk and is nervous about the size of the betting number -- a reasoned pick surrounded by real hedges.

A good, powerful striker who combines punches and kicks well, with the body kick as his best weapon; also a good grappler with powerful slams and heavy ground and pound. A historically fast starter whose decision-making is repeatedly questioned, though the analyst now notes he has been able to go the distance rather than only winning early.

Strengthgood power
Strengthcombines punches and kicks well
Strengthgood body kick (best weapon)
Strengthpowerful slams
Strengthheavy ground and pound
Strengthattacks submissions
Weaknesspoor range control for his size
Weaknesscomfortable fighting from his back rather than avoiding it
Weaknessquestionable fight IQ/decision-making
ko power · good
vs Disco Todorovic emphatic UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 26, 2025 · 4 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

No hedge anywhere in Reese's half of the breakdown. He makes a specific, unwalked-back prediction of a first-round finish and closes by stating plainly that he is taking Reese to get it done. The weaknesses he names are entirely on the opponent's side (durability, takedown defense), with nothing conceding a route back for Todorovic.

Zach Reese is a good, powerful striker who the analyst points to a one-punch knockout (under the newer gloves many said made finishes harder) as proof of his power, and who mixes punches and kicks together well. In the grappling he is a powerful slammer with heavy ground-and-pound and active submission attacks, though the analyst dislikes how willing he is to work from guard. He is typically a fast starter whose wins tend to come early, and the analyst expects that pattern to continue here.

Strengthgood, powerful striking; mixes punches and kicks well
Strengthpowerful slammer, heavy ground-and-pound, attacks submissions
Strengthfast starter, historically finishes early
Weaknesstoo willing to work from guard rather than get back up
ko power · goodpace · fast starterfinish window · early
vs Azamat Bekoev coinflip UFC 311 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · January 16, 2025 · 5 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Tells viewers he'd personally avoid betting this one given how many unknowns surround a short-notice assignment, yet still commits to a side by decision while flagging that the other man could just as easily finish things early -- a named pick undercut by real staking caution and a live alternate outcome, which caps it at coinflip.

A strong, heavy-handed striker who blends punches and kicks into the same sequence rather than keeping them separate; comes out of the gate quickly and has closed out a large share of his wins inside round one, though the analyst notes that pattern won't hold forever. Also a strong finisher on the mat, with forceful takedowns, heavy ground work, and a habit of hunting submissions.

Strengthheavy hands, blends punches and kicks in sequence
Strengthquick starter, frequent early finishes
Strengthforceful takedowns, heavy ground work, hunts submissions
pace · fast starter
vs Jose Medina clear UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 · 6 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

Plain, unhedged commitment: he says Reese 'should win' comfortably and states flatly 'we're taking Zach' -- reasoned on power, wrestling and finishing ability against a durable but outmatched opponent.

A 7-1 middleweight he calls a very fast starter and a good striker who mixes punches and kicks extremely well, with real power he says 'can hit like a truck.' His wrestling is just as strong -- good, with powerful slams, heavy ground-and-pound and a live submission threat off his back or on top. He expects an early finish, saying plainly he wants to get the fight done in round one.

Strengthvery fast starter
Strengthgood striker who mixes punches/kicks well
Strengthheavy power
Strengthgood wrestling with powerful slams and heavy ground-and-pound
Strengthlive submission threat from top or back
pace · fast starterfinish window · early
vs Julian Marquez coinflip UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Louisville) · June 4, 2024 · 7 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

He names Reese as the pick but immediately follows it with the root-beer idiom and an instruction to pass on the fight -- the idiom plus an explicit instruction to pass on the fight is the coinflip shape. He also states outright that there isn't enough information to go on, genuine outcome doubt layered on top of the betting caution.

Analyst's pick, 4-1 in his last five. A significantly bigger man (6'4"/77" reach vs Marquez's 6'2"/72") with striking the analyst likes, real power, and a mixed striking arsenal, plus good grappling (powerful slams, good submission attacks, heavy ground-and-pound). Named explicitly as a fast starter; almost nothing is known about him past the first round because his entire pro career has ended there.

Strengthsize/reach advantage
Strengthpower
Strengthmixed striking
Strengthslams/ground-and-pound
Strengthfast starter
pace · fast starter
vs Cody Brundage clear UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · November 28, 2023 · 8 reads since
strikinggood wrestlinggood

Pick stated plainly and repeated ("Zach Reese all day"), backed by a specific mechanism -- his power/wrestling against Brundage's striking defense and tendency to end up stuck on his back -- with no hedge on the win itself, only a method qualifier ("probably by knockout").

Zach Reese is read as a serious power puncher who finishes fights quickly and early, with heavy combinations across punches, kicks, knees and elbows. His wrestling is also credited as pretty good, with powerful slams and heavy ground-and-pound. The analyst has limited tape on him given his short UFC-debut career but likes what he has seen.

Strengthheavy power across varied strikes
Strengthfluent combinations mixing punch/kick/knee/elbow
Strengthpowerful slams
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound
finish window · early

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
August 24, 2024 vs Jose Daniel Medina — 5.0/min (W) Aug '24 January 18, 2025 vs Azamat Bekoev — 4.24/min (L) — only 3.1 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jan '25 May 31, 2025 vs Dusko Todorovic — 3.33/min (W) May '25 September 13, 2025 vs Sedriques Dumas — 2.35/min (NC) — only 0.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '25 November 8, 2025 vs Jackson McVey — 4.82/min (W) Nov '25 February 21, 2026 vs Michel Pereira — 4.93/min (L) Feb '26 July 11, 2026 vs Ryan Gandra — 4.0/min (L) — only 1.2 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jul '26 October 31, 2026 vs Mickey Gall — 7.33/min (W) Oct '26

Fight history

10 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Mickey Gall 7-7 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · October 31, 2026
110/201Sig. strikes
67/138Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:10Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Ryan Gandra 1-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:15 — UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
5/10Sig. strikes
10/20Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Michel Pereira 31-14 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · February 21, 2026
74/148Sig. strikes
63/132Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
0:47Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Jackson McVey 0-1 walk-in Submission · R2 1:38 — UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · November 8, 2025
32/42Sig. strikes
56/73Absorbed
3/3Takedowns
2:24Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
NC Sedriques Dumas 3-3 walk-in Could Not Continue · R1 0:51 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · September 13, 2025
2/7Sig. strikes
3/10Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Dusko Todorovic 12-5 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
50/108Sig. strikes
35/65Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
1:19Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Azamat Bekoev 16-3 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:04 — UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · January 18, 2025
13/24Sig. strikes
21/26Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Jose Daniel Medina 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · August 24, 2024
75/129Sig. strikes
32/74Absorbed
5/9Takedowns
5:57Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Julian Marquez 9-4 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 0:20 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · June 8, 2024
6/9Sig. strikes
1/1Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Cody Brundage 9-5 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:49 — UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · December 2, 2023
4/5Sig. strikes
9/12Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
10-4-0 (1 NC)Pro record
WAR Training CenterGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 5
Submission 3
Decision 2
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 3
Submission 0
Decision 1
Other 0

No contests: 1

Fights by organization

UFC 9
Fury FC 3
Peak Fighting 2
Dana White's Contender Series 1
Full career — 15 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Ryan Gandra TKO (punches) UFC 329
July 11, 2026
UFC 1 1:15
L Michel Pereira Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
February 21, 2026
UFC 3 5:00
W Jackson McVey Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
November 8, 2025
UFC 2 1:38
NC Sedriques Dumas NC (accidental groin kick) UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
September 13, 2025
UFC 1 0:51
W Duško Todorović Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Gamrot vs. Klein
May 31, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
L Azamat Bekoev KO (punches) UFC 311
January 18, 2025
UFC 1 3:04
W José Medina Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho
August 24, 2024
UFC 3 5:00
W Julian Marquez TKO (body kick and punches) UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov
June 8, 2024
UFC 1 0:20
L Cody Brundage KO (slam and punches) UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
December 2, 2023
UFC 1 1:49
W Eli Aronov Submission (armbar) Dana White's Contender Series 59
August 22, 2023
Dana White's Contender Series 1 1:14
W Tommie Britton TKO (punches) Fury FC 76
March 24, 2023
Fury FC 1 0:52
W Aaron Phillips Technical Submission (guillotine choke) Fury FC 74
February 5, 2023
Fury FC 1 0:35
W Shahriar Zolfaghari TKO (elbows and punches) Fury FC 71
November 6, 2022
Fury FC 1 0:50
W Malik Jahmaze TKO (punches) Peak Fighting 15
August 21, 2021
Peak Fighting 1 4:13
W Fred Zamora KO (elbows) Peak Fighting 10
April 10, 2021
Peak Fighting 1 1:32

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Zachary Reese) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 168 qualified Middleweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 5.0 avg 3.3
Strikes absorbed /min 4.0 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 54.3% avg 47.0%
Striking defense 46.1% avg 53.4%
Takedowns /15 min 2.2 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 57.9% avg 40.4%
Takedown defense 59.1% avg 61.3%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.8 avg 0.7
Control time 14.4% avg 21.6%
Finish rate 40.0% avg 60.8%